Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 63.59%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 16.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%), while for a Portimonense win it was 0-1 (4.62%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Braga | Draw | Portimonense |
63.59% ( 3.49) | 20.29% ( -1.12) | 16.11% ( -2.38) |
Both teams to score 53.13% ( -1.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.86% ( 0.88) | 42.13% ( -0.88) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.46% ( 0.87) | 64.54% ( -0.87) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.4% ( 1.3) | 12.59% ( -1.31) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.32% ( 2.64) | 38.68% ( -2.64) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.78% ( -2.28) | 39.22% ( 2.28) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.07% ( -2.2) | 75.92% ( 2.2) |
Score Analysis |
Braga | Draw | Portimonense |
2-0 @ 10.6% ( 0.6) 1-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 7.32% ( 0.75) 3-1 @ 6.86% ( 0.31) 4-0 @ 3.79% ( 0.55) 4-1 @ 3.55% ( 0.32) 3-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.66% ( 0.05) 5-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.29) 5-1 @ 1.47% ( 0.2) Other @ 3.4% Total : 63.59% | 1-1 @ 9.58% ( -0.5) 0-0 @ 4.94% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.31) 3-3 @ 1% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.29% | 0-1 @ 4.62% ( -0.49) 1-2 @ 4.48% ( -0.54) 0-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.38) 2-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.2) 1-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.27) Other @ 2% Total : 16.11% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 14 | 39 | 47 |
2 | Benfica | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 43 | 14 | 29 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 15 | 27 | 41 |
4 | Braga | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 19 | 15 | 37 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 32 |
6 | Casa Pia | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 30 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 26 |
8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 24 |
9 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 23 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 23 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 22 |
12 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 21 |
13 | Nacional | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 19 |
14 | AroucaArouca | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 19 |
15 | AVS | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 18 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 17 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | -19 | 12 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |