Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 50.16%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 24.95% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.51%) and 0-2 (9.01%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 1-0 (7.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Portimonense | Draw | Braga |
24.95% ( 0.05) | 24.89% ( 0.03) | 50.16% ( -0.07) |
Both teams to score 52.12% ( -0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.7% ( -0.08) | 50.29% ( 0.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.75% ( -0.07) | 72.24% ( 0.07) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.2% ( -0) | 34.79% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.47% ( -0) | 71.52% ( 0) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.94% ( -0.06) | 20.06% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.71% ( -0.1) | 52.29% ( 0.1) |
Score Analysis |
Portimonense | Draw | Braga |
1-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 6.25% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 3.89% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.2% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.37% ( 0) Other @ 2.1% Total : 24.95% | 1-1 @ 11.83% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.02% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.88% | 0-1 @ 11.21% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.51% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 9.01% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.09% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 4.82% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.05% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.94% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.77% Total : 50.16% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 37 |
2 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Braga | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 28 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 27 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 17 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
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