Leaders Sporting Lisbon travel to Belenenses on Sunday evening looking to move five points clear at the top of the Primeira Liga standings.
However, they square off against opposition in Belenenses who join them in possessing the best defensive record in the division.
Match preview
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After their shock defeat to LASK Linz in the Europa League qualifying rounds, few would have expected Sporting to put together a 12-match unbeaten streak in all competitions.
The league leaders were far from their best during their last-gasp win over Farense, but the result has kept the pressure on the chasing pack heading into 2021.
With Porto and Benfica having contested the Super Cup earlier this week, Ruben Amorim's team have the opportunity to move five points clear ahead of the two biggest clubs in Portugal.
The pressure remains off Sporting to a certain degree with few people expecting anything better than third place, but a ninth league win in 11 will only increase expectations at Estadio Jose Alvalade.
Pedro Goncalves, formerly of Wolverhampton Wanderers, has been a revelation since arriving from Famalicao, but the playmaker's six-match scoring streak came to an end in Sporting's last fixture.
Goncalves has scored twice as many strikes as the entire Belenenses squad, a remarkable statistic which only suggests that the home side could struggle on Sunday evening.
Nevertheless, Nuno Oliveira's team have matched Sporting for only conceding seven times in 10 matches, two of which came in the same game at Benfica.
Oliveira will naturally want to see more productivity in the final third, but the Belenenses boss is unlikely to tinker with his tactics for a game of this magnitude.
Os Azuis do Restelo are also coming off the back of a defeat to Maritimo, a setback which has left the club within reach of every team below them in the table.
Belenenses Primeira Liga form: LDDDWL
Belenenses form (all competitions): DWDWLW
Sporting Lisbon Primeira Liga form: WWWWDW
Sporting Lisbon form (all competitions): WWDWWW
Team News
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Belenenses will be without Stanislav Kritsyuk and Thibang Phete after their dismissals against Maritimo.
Guilherme Oliveira and Danny Henriques are expected to be brought into the starting lineup.
Andraz Sporar is pushing for a recall to the Sporting XI after netting in his last two appearances in all competitions.
Bruno Tabata may get the nod over Nuno Santos, who has failed to contribute a goal or assist in his last three outings.
Belenenses possible starting lineup:
Oliveira; Henriques, Henrique, Ribeiro; Esgaio, Sithole, Ramires, Lima; Varela, Cardoso, Sousa
Sporting Lisbon possible starting lineup:
Adan; Neto, Coates, Feddal; Porro, Palhinha, Mario, Mendes; Goncalves, Tabata; Sporar
We say: Belenenses 1-2 Sporting Lisbon
Despite the home side losing their way in recent weeks, we still expect them to provide Sporting with one of their toughest tests of the season. However, the leaders are motivated to remain undefeated heading into 2021, and the visitors could edge a tight game on Sunday evening.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 62.59%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 15.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.35%) and 1-2 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for a Belenenses win it was 1-0 (5.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
