Penarol

1 - 0

Progreso

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 61.26%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 16.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.72%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (5.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Penarol in this match.