Seeking to avoid a third successive Serie A game without a win, league leaders AC Milan will welcome relegation-threatened Genoa to San Siro on Good Friday.
The Rossoneri have only won two of their last six league matches on home soil, while the Rossoblu have won only one of their 16 away games in the top flight this season, a 3-2 victory against Cagliari back in September.
Match preview
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AC Milan have seen their lead at the top of the table cut to just two points, following successive goalless draws against Bologna and Torino.
Stefano Pioli's men had 47 shots on goal between these two matches, but they were unable to find the net and have subsequently dropped four points against opposition in the bottom half of the table.
The Rossoneri, who are vying to win their first Serie A title since 2011, will now be looking over their shoulders after city rivals Inter Milan claimed back-to-back league wins to move to within two points of the summit with a game in hand.
Milan will be confident of returning to winning ways and finding their form in front of goal when they face Genoa, as they have won seven of their last 10 league games against them, scoring two or more goals on six of those occasions.
With Inter facing Spezia two hours before Milan kick off against Genoa, the former could momentarily climb to the top with a victory, but maximum points secured by Pioli's men on Good Friday would help them return to the summit.
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After seven successive draws and one victory in eight matches between January 22 and March 18, Genoa have since suffered back-to-back league defeats against Hellas Verona and Lazio.
A narrow 1-0 loss away at Verona was followed by a heavy 4-1 defeat at home to Lazio last weekend, with hat-trick hero and Serie A top goalscorer Ciro Immobile the star of the show for the visitors.
Genoa now have identical home and away records in Serie A this season after 32 matches, winning only once, drawing eight times and losing seven games.
Alexander Blessin's side remain in the relegation zone, but they are only three points adrift of safety with six games remaining, including favourable-looking fixtures against Cagliari, Sampdoria and Bologna.
One of three challenging fixtures remaining for the Rossoblu is their Good Friday clash with Milan, though their surprise 2-1 triumph at San Siro in March 2020 will provide them with confidence.
Genoa have only won two Serie A games this season, the fewest of any side in Europe's top-five leagues, but if they were to cause a major upset against the league leaders, then they could move out of the bottom three if Cagliari were to lose to Sassuolo.
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Team News
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AC Milan quartet Ismael Bennacer, Samu Castillejo, Ante Rebic and Alessio Romagnoli are all sidelined with muscle injuries, while Alessandro Florenzi and Simon Kjaer are ruled out for the rest of the season with knee problems.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic is also set to miss out with a knee issue, so Olivier Giroud is expected to lead the line once again.
Pioli is unlikely to make too many changes, if any, to his starting lineup, so the likes of Rafael Leao, Brahim Diaz and Alexis Saelemaekers are all set to support Giroud again in the final third.
As for Genoa, Zinho Vanheusden, Andrea Cambiaso, Lennart Czyborra, Nicolo Rovella, Stefano Sturaro and Riccardo Calafiori are all ruled out due to injury.
Veteran defender Domenico Criscito is set to begin as a substitute again, with a back four of Silvan Hefti, Nikola Maksimovic, Leo Ostigard and Johan Vasquez expected to continue.
Former Milan striker Mattia Destro, who has found the net just twice in 12 appearances since the turn of the year, will be hoping to force his way into the Genoa XI ahead of either Roberto Piccoli or Caleb Ekuban.
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Calabria, Kalulu, Tomori, Hernandez; Tonali, Kessie; Saelemaekers, Diaz, Leao; Giroud
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Perin; Hefti, Maksimovic, Ostigard, Vasquez; Badelj, Galdames; Melegoni, Amiri, Portanova; Ekuban
We say: AC Milan 1-0 Genoa
Both sides have been difficult to break down in recent months but they have also struggled to find the net, so a low-scoring contest could be on the cards at San Siro.
However, Milan will be the firm favourites to come away with maximum points and they should have enough quality in their side to edge past the visitors.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 77.87%. A draw had a probability of 14.8% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 7.33%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.46%) and 1-0 (11.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.01%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (2.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for AC Milan in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for AC Milan.
