Al-Nassr

3 - 1

Istiqlol Dushanbe

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Nassr win with a probability of 56.03%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Istiqlol Dushanbe had a probability of 20.98%.

The most likely scoreline for an Al-Nassr win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.86%) and 2-0 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Istiqlol Dushanbe win it was 0-1 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al-Nassr would win this match.