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Arouca
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 16
Dec 30, 2021 at 7pm UK
Estádio Municipal
Braga

Arouca
0 - 6
Braga


Valderrama (9'), Evangelista (45+4')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Oliveira (5', 12', 26'), Medeiros (71' pen.), Fernandes (74', 80')
Couto (54'), Mineiro (72')

Preview: Arouca vs. Braga - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Having seen their Taca de Portugal campaign come to an end last time out, Braga will be looking to return to winning ways when they lock horns with Arouca at the Estadio Municipal de Arouca on Thursday.

The hosts, on the other hand, head into the game without a win in any of their last three games and will be seeking to end this dry spell and move into the top half of the Primeira Liga table.


Match preview

Braga's Lucas Piazon celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates in May 2021© Reuters

Arouca continue to struggle for form in the Primeira Liga as they were forced to settle for a 1-1 draw against Portimonense at the Estadio Municipal de Portimao two Saturdays ago.

Following a drab first half, the game was sparked into life in the 52nd minute when Brazilian forward Andre Silva scored to put the visitors ahead before fellow countryman Luquinha came off the bench to force a share of the spoils with a 71st-minute strike.

Prior to that, Armando Evangelista's men saw their four-game unbeaten run come to an end courtesy of a 2-1 defeat against Santa Clara in December 5 before suffering a 4-1 loss on home turf against Vizela eight days later.

This slump in form has seen Arouca fall outside the top half of the Primeira Liga standings as they currently occupy 12th place after claiming 14 points from their opening 15 games.

While they will look to end this dry spell, next up is an opposing side who are unbeaten in each of the last six meetings between the teams, claiming three wins and three draws since 2015.

Braga's Paulinho celebrates scoring against Leicester City in the Europa League on November 26, 2020© Reuters

Meanwhile, Braga's Taca de Portugal title defence only lasted as far as the last 16 as they were sent packing courtesy of a disappointing 1-0 defeat at the hands of Vizela last time out.

In a heated contest at the Estadio do FC Vizela, where Braga saw two red cards, Vizela took the lead inside the opening nine minutes through 22-year-old midfielder Nuno Moreira before putting on a defensive show of class to keep the visitors at bay.

That was a third defeat within the space of three games for Carlos Carvalhal's side, who have now failed to win in four of their last five outings across all competitions.

However, three of those games have come away from the Primeira Liga, where they have been solid in recent weeks, claiming three wins from their most recent four games, including a slender 1-0 victory over Belenenses in their last outing.

After claiming 28 points from 15 games, Braga's hopes of securing their first-ever league title can be considered effectively over once again as they are currently fourth on the log, 13 points behind title-chasing Porto and Sporting Lisbon.

Arouca Primeira Liga form:
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D

Braga Primeira Liga form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W

Braga form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L



Team News

Braga coach Carlos Carvalhal in February 2021© Reuters

Arouca head into the game with several concerns on the injury front to contend with as the midfield duo of Pedro Moreira and Moses Yaw continue their spells on the sidelines.

Fernando Augusto will also play no part in the game after picking up an injury back in October meaning we could see second-choice goalkeeper Victor Braga start between the sticks once again.

Venezuelan defender Jose Manuel Velazquez is also out of contention for the hosts after picking up a knee problem while on international versus Argentina back in September.

Meanwhile, the Portuguese duo of forward Ricardo Horta and midfielder Chiquinho will be forced into isolation after recently testing positive for COVID-19.

David Carmo is also out of contention for the visitors as he continues his lengthy spell on the sidelines after fracturing his ankle back in February.

He is joined on the club's injury table by 31-year-old defender Nuno Sequeira, who sustained a knee injury midway through the game against Benfica on November 7.

Arouca possible starting lineup:
Braga; Thales, Basso, Campi, Quaresma; L Silva, Eboue, Kouassi; Bukia, Nunes, Dabbagh

Braga possible starting lineup:
Matheus; Oliveira, Rodrigues, Leite; Couto, Musrati, A. Horta, Moura; Medeiros, Piazon, Ruiz


SM words green background

We say: Arouca 1-2 Braga

While Braga appear to have fallen off the rails in recent weeks, they head into Thursday's game unbeaten in each of their last six games against Arouca. We predict they will extend their dominance in this fixture and claim all three points, albeit by a slender margin.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



ID:473952:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect9568:
Written by
Joshua Ojele

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 49.61%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 24.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.39%) and 0-2 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.08%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (7.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Arouca vs Braga

Arouca
16.2%
Draw
13.5%
Braga
70.3%
37
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Sporting Lisbon's Bruno Tabata celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on December 7, 2021
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon14120243103336
2Porto1411123392434
3Benfica1310213282432
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara149051613327
5Braga147432516925
6Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes146441814422
7MoreirenseMoreirense146261919020
8FamalicaoFamalicao144731715219
9Casa Pia144551317-417
10Gil Vicente144461724-716
11Rio AveRio Ave144461525-1016
12Estoril PraiaEstoril143561221-914
13Nacional13337817-912
14AVS142661122-1112
15Estrela Amadora143381224-1212
16BoavistaBoavista142571019-911
17AroucaArouca14329823-1511
18SC FarenseFarense14239720-139


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