Primeira Liga | Gameweek 16

Dec 30, 2021 at 7pm UK

Estádio Municipal

Arouca
0 - 6
Braga

Valderrama (9'), Evangelista (45+4')

FT(HT: 0-3)

Oliveira (5', 12', 26'), Medeiros (71' pen.), Fernandes (74', 80')
Couto (54'), Mineiro (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

While Braga appear to have fallen off the rails in recent weeks, they head into Thursday's game unbeaten in each of their last six games against Arouca. We predict they will extend their dominance in this fixture and claim all three points, albeit by a slender margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 49.61%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 24.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.39%) and 0-2 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.08%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (7.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Braga
24.96%	25.42%	49.61%

Both teams to score 50.5%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.57%

52.43%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.89%

74.11%

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.05%

35.95%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.27%

72.73%

Braga Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.85%

21.15%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46%

54%

Score Analysis

Arouca 24.96%

Braga 49.62%

Draw 25.42%

Arouca	Draw	Braga
1-0 @ 7.78% 2-1 @ 6.18% 2-0 @ 3.98% 3-1 @ 2.11% 3-2 @ 1.64% 3-0 @ 1.36% Other @ 1.92% Total : 24.96%	1-1 @ 12.08% 0-0 @ 7.6% 2-2 @ 4.8% Other @ 0.94% Total : 25.42%	0-1 @ 11.81% 1-2 @ 9.39% 0-2 @ 9.18% 1-3 @ 4.86% 0-3 @ 4.75% 2-3 @ 2.49% 1-4 @ 1.89% 0-4 @ 1.85% 2-4 @ 0.97% Other @ 2.44% Total : 49.62%