Arsenal must present a clear first-team pathway to wonderkid Max Dowman, who should pay attention to the progress of Ethan Nwaneri and Myles Lewis-Skelly as opposed to Chido Obi Martin and Ayden Heaven when deciding his long-term future, expert Charles Watts believes.
The 15-year-old sensation is the latest gem to emerge from the Hale End academy and earlier this season broke Youssoufa Moukoko's record for the youngest player to ever score in a UEFA Youth League match.
Dowman is already a regular at Under-18s level for Arsenal and recently sent tongues wagging in an FA Youth Cup quarter-final loss to Manchester United, winning and scoring a penalty with a terrific solo run at the Emirates Stadium.
The 2009-born starlet is ineligible to make his senior debut this season, but he is regularly training with the first team and travelled to Dubai for their winter training camp, demonstrating just how highly Mikel Arteta rates him.
Asked if Dowman is nailed on for a first-team baptism next season, Watts told Sports Mole: "Potentially. It's hard to talk about players that young now, isn't it? He is a special talent, there's no denying it. Arsenal have been trying to keep him under wraps, but they know that the spotlight is going to be there, the attention is going to be there.
"Sometimes when you're that good at that age, it's impossible to keep them covered up. And he is a hell of a talent, but you've got to be careful with them. Nwaneri is still 17, but he's getting close to 18, and he's now in the first team picture regularly. Dowman is still three years behind that.
"If he were to play next season, I would not expect him to be playing the minutes that we're seeing Myles or Ethan get now. It would be very much dip your toe into the water, get the odd minute here or there. So I don't think you can rely on Max Dowman next season.
Watts warns Arsenal are open to Obi Martin repeat with Dowman
"That's putting an incredible amount of pressure on such a young kid who's still developing and his body's still getting used to the demands of under-23s football, let alone senior Premier League football. You've got to be a bit careful with him. You also don't know what's going to happen with him. He hasn't signed a professional contract yet. He can't, he's too young.
"Until that happens, then you're always wide open to the prospect of a Chido Obi Martin situation developing and him being offered huge amounts of money elsewhere. Arsenal have fallen victim to that, so fingers crossed from an Arsenal point of view, it doesn't happen, but it could."
Arteta is no stranger to handing Premier League debuts to 15-year-olds, having made Nwaneri the youngest player in the history of the competition in September 2022, and the now 17-year-old is currently thriving in Bukayo Saka's absence.
Nwaneri netted his eighth goal of the season in all competitions in Tuesday's 7-1 Champions League obliteration of PSV Eindhoven, and the 2007-born prospect committed his future to the Gunners by signing a professional deal when he turned 17 last year.
However, Arsenal had to fend off interest from Chelsea and Manchester City to keep Nwaneri on the books, and Dowman's age means that he will not be able to sign professional terms until New Year's Eve 2026.
Watts has warned Arsenal that they risk Dowman being poached by another club's academy for as long as he is too young to sign professional terms, and the Gunners must therefore map out a clear pathway for his progression to the first team.
Watts reveals Nwaneri almost left Arsenal before contract signing
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"It looked for a long time like Ethan Nwaneri was going to go before he signed his first professional contract," Watts added. "Arsenal thought he had gone, but they managed to change his mind and convince him to stay, which is fantastic news. But they're going to be in that same situation with Max Dowman until he puts pen to paper on that first professional contract when he's 17.
"Brilliant talent, really, really exciting. They do need to make sure there is a pathway there, which they have done with Ethan as well. A big part of Emile Smith Rowe going was to allow Ethan to get the minutes that Emile Smith Rowe would have got had he stayed. So they do need to take that into account with Max Dowman.
"Tread carefully and let's see how it goes. Let's see how he develops over the next 12 months or so."
Arsenal have experienced an exodus of young players recently, as all of Heaven, Obi Martin, Amario Cozier-Duberry and Reuell Walters have decided to advance their careers elsewhere after concluding that there was no route to the Gunners' senior team.
Heaven and Obi Martin are already in the thick of Ruben Amorim's first-team squad at Man United, and the latter could even be in contention to start against his former club when the Gunners visit Old Trafford on Sunday afternoon in the Premier League.
However, Arteta has placed his faith in Nwaneri and fellow teenager Lewis-Skelly in recent weeks and has been rewarded for it, with the latter managing to overtake new signing Riccardo Calafiori to become the club's first-choice left-back.
Furthermore, Dowman could potentially learn a lot from club captain Martin Odegaard, who also burst onto the scene at 15 years old and plays in the same position as the Englishman, who has largely occupied an advanced central role this season.
Could Odegaard play a big role in Dowman's decision?
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While Watts is optimistic that Dowman could be incentivised to stay due to Odegaard's presence, he believes that a clear path to the senior squad will ultimately be the deciding factor.
"You would hope so, but the pathway is going to be really, really important," he replied when asked if learning from Odegaard could convince Dowman to stay. "Dowman's going to have so many options on the table because of his sheer natural talent. Arteta will be very much mapping out his plans to him and his representatives.
"I had a question from someone asking me do you think Max will be looking at Chido and Ayden thinking, 'look what's going on with them.' Why does he need to do that? He only has to look into the first team right now at Arsenal, look at Ethan Nwaneri and Myles Lewis-Skelly to see that you don't have to go elsewhere to get these minutes.
"Lewis-Skelly is probably going to get his first England call up in a couple of weeks. He's from the exact same path that Max Dowman hopefully is going to follow very, very soon. I don't think he needs to look at these other players, other clubs.
"He just has to look closer to home and think 'why would I need to go? I'm at a top club, a club where I know I'm very, very comfortable, my development has been good, I'm virtually part of the first team squad'.
"He's always training with them, they've welcomed him in already. He can't play yet because of the regulations, but in almost everything else, he's a first team regular. They are absolutely doing all they can to show him that the pathway is there."
Dowman also has three goals to show from 10 appearances for the England Under-17 side, while Nwaneri and Lewis-Skelly are both being tipped for call-ups to Thomas Tuchel's Three Lions squad for March's World Cup 2026 qualifiers against Albania and Latvia.
Ben Knapton
