Less than three weeks since their thrilling semi-final tussle in Dubai, Elena Rybakina and teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva face off in the Indian Wells Masters fourth round, with the victor advancing to the WTA 1000 quarter-final.
Rybakina, the 2023 Indian Wells champion, is unbeaten at the event since 2022, and she aims to right the wrongs of that battle in the Middle East, where she led 3-1 in the decider before falling to the 17-year-old, who claimed a 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 success en route to a maiden WTA 1000 crown.
Match preview
© Imago
Despite facing a second-set scare against British star Katie Boulter, Rybakina notched a 6-0, 7-5 win against the No. 25 seed, who served for the set at 5-4 before the Kazakhstani star reeled off three games on the trot to avoid a tie-break.
Boulter did seem to be playing better midway through set two, highlighted by winning the longer rallies against the former world No. 3, and the 2023 Indian Wells champion may not get so lucky against Andreeva, who showed in Dubai that she is well-versed at making her opponents play one extra ball.
Defeating Boulter was Rybakina's 15th victory in 2025 and 11th overall in the Californian desert, where she has not lost since falling to Maria Sakkari in 2022's quarter-final.
Having not defended her title 12 months ago due to illness, the 25-year-old, who has advanced to the last eight in consecutive appearances at the event, bids for a third straight quarter-final by defeating the Dubai champion.
At an event where she holds an 85% win rate, the highest among the 1000 tournaments, the seventh seed aims to claim her 12th career victory to set up a last-eight meeting with Elina Svitolina or Jessica Pegula.
© Imago
Despite Rybakina's fondness for Indian Wells, that outcome is far from assured against a player appearing in the Californian desert for only the second time after last year's debut.
Having exited in 2024's tournament opener to Katie Volynets, Andreeva has notched consecutive victories over Varvara Gracheva and Clara Tauson in 2025, getting the better of Tauson 6-3, 6-0 in just over an hour, less than three weeks after their Dubai final.
Consecutive wins over the Dane across different tournaments mean that the 17-year-old has avoided stumbling after recent success in the Middle East to improve to 15-3 for the season.
The young Russian player has secured eight wins on the trot entering a first fourth-round match at the BNP Paribas Open, having last suffered defeat at the hands of Rebecca Sramkova in Doha.
On a roll and unbeaten in exactly a month, Andreeva seeks back-to-back triumphs over Rybakina and a third consecutive top-10 victory to advance to a maiden quarter-final berth at the event.
Tournament so far
Elena Rybakina:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Suzan Lamens 6-3 6-3
Third round: vs. Katie Boulter 6-0 7-5
Mirra Andreeva:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Varvara Gracheva 7-5 6-4
Third round: vs. Clara Tauson 6-3 6-0
Head To Head
Dubai (2025) - Semi-final: Andreeva 6-4 4-6 6-3
Beijing (2023) - Round of 16: Rybakina 2-6 6-4 6-1
Both players have secured one win each ahead of their third contest on the WTA Tour, with Andreeva levelling the head-to-head after her semi-final Dubai success.
The match in the Middle East seemed to follow the pattern of the players' 2023 Beijing match-up, in which Rybakina claimed sets two and three, but the teenager rallied from 3-1 down in the decider to avoid a repeat and upset the eight-time WTA champion.
The victory over Rybakina means that having lost four consecutive matches against top-10 players, the 17-year-old has now secured back-to-back wins over elite opponents for the third time in her career, and the ninth seed bids for a third straight success against such opposition for the first time.
We say: Rybakina to win in three sets
While Andreeva is playing at a high level at present, Rybakina's Indian Wells expertise means we are backing the seventh seed to advance to the quarter-final in another three-setter.
Although the outcome is contingent on the eight-time WTA champion limiting errors and showcasing her rally tolerance, which dipped against Boulter, the motivation for a deep run in California and defeating Andreeva after falling to the teenager in the Middle East should see the 25-year-old progress.
