Atlanta United can extend their unbeaten run at Mercedes-Benz Stadium to 10 straight games in Major League Soccer when they welcome CF Montreal to town on Saturday.
The Five Stripes got back to winning ways a week ago, edging Charlotte Independence 2-1, while Montreal are one of only two teams in the league who have yet to earn a point this season.
Match preview
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Finding a way to bounce back was the main goal for Gonzalo Pineda and his side last weekend, and they did exactly that at home to Charlotte, moving into a tie for fourth place in the Eastern Conference.
While the three points may have been well deserved, that victory had many anxious moments that they will want to avoid moving forward.
Atlanta conceded seven shots on target and needed some late drama to pull off the triumph, scoring the winner in the 96th minute thanks to a fortunate deflection off Christian Makoun.
Pineda saw his players respond well after conceding the equaliser to Adam Armour last Sunday, as they were consistently pressing for a winner and had 62% of the possession overall.
The Five Stripes have created their share of scoring opportunities through the first three matches of the year, though that final ball has not always been as precise as their build-up play, which they will be working on improving this weekend.
Defending set-pieces has been an area of concern for this team in the early going, as that enabled Charlotte to get back into the game versus Atlanta, and it was an area that the Colorado Rapids were able to exploit as well in a week two victory (3-0).
They have been able to start most of their matches strong, conceding only one first-half goal in their previous seven MLS fixtures dating back to last year, and including the playoffs.
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After narrowly missing out on the postseason a year ago, Montreal have not started the new season brightly, hitting a low point last Saturday, dropping a 4-1 decision to New York City FC.
Wilfried Nancy knew heading into his sophomore campaign as the head coach that there would be more expectations on this team, given the new additions and how close they were to making the playoffs in 2021, but his players at present have failed to deliver.
So far, what must be frustrating for this group is the kind of goals which they have conceded, as they have been entirely preventable ones and the result of poor defending, while also being caught out of position.
They came into this campaign with perhaps the most demanding schedule of all the Canadian teams, and it appears as though it is starting to take a toll on them.
Having to compete in the CONCACAF Champions League (CCL), not to mention the fact that their first four league opponents are all teams who made the playoffs last year, including the reigning MLS Cup champions, is a tough challenge to say the least.
The bounces are not going their way at the moment, although they can take some solace in their performance on Wednesday in their CCL Quarter-Final, as they drew Cruz Azul 1-1 and had 68% possession.
Their elimination from the Champions League may be a blessing in disguise, as the 2021 winners of the Voyageurs Cup can now switch their focus to the domestic campaign, and they will have a chance to recharge their batteries following this match thanks to the international break.
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Team News
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Josef Martinez scored his first of the season for Atlanta last weekend from the penalty spot, while a beautiful ball over the top from Marcelino Moreno found Jake Mulraney as the Irishman cut the ball onto his left foot to fire home the winning strike.
Emerson Hyndman is out with a torn ACL, Machop Chol has a leg injury, Luiz Araujo is nursing a hamstring problem, Franco Ibarra continues to struggle with his fitness and Miles Robinson missed their match last weekend through suspension.
Last Sunday, George Campbell moved into central defence in place of Robinson, Osvaldo Alonso played in a central midfield role, while the front three of Martinez, Brooks Lennon and Tyler Wolff have started back-to-back games in the attack.
Rudy Camacho scored the equaliser for Montreal in their 1-1 draw with Cruz Azul, though ultimately his side fell 2-1 on aggregate, while Zachary Brault-Guillard notched his first of the season domestically in their defeat to the Pigeons last week.
After signing home-grown goalkeeper Jonathan Sirois to a contract extension until 2023, the club then loaned him along with midfielder Sean Rea to Valour FC in the Canadian Premier League.
Mason Toye is nursing an adductor issue, Ahmed Hamdi and Samuel Piette remain sidelined with ankle injuries, Bjorn Johnsen and Sunusi Ibrahim have illnesses and Tomas Giraldo is out with a leg problem.
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Guzan; DeJohn, Franco, Campbell, Gutman; Rossetto, Alonso, Moreno; Lennon, Martinez, Wolff
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Breza; Johnston, Camacho, Waterman, Miller; Lappalainen, Wanyama, Brault-Guillard; Mihailovic; Torres, Quioto
We say: Atlanta United 2-0 CF Montreal
Physically and mentally, Montreal appear drained and in desperate need of a break to regroup, while their defending so far is leaving a lot to be desired.
Atlanta still tend to give away some quality scoring opportunities, but that should not matter too much against a side low on confidence and likely pretty tired, with little time to rest, following a midweek encounter.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 61.1%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for CF Montreal had a probability of 16.98%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.18%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a CF Montreal win it was 0-1 (5.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
