On Monday, a big three points will be up for grabs in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A as Atletico Goianiense host Bahia from Atletico Clube Goianiense Stadium.
Both sides are barely clinging to a place in the top-flight next year with Bahia back above the relegation line thanks to a 3-1 win over Gremio, while Dragao are only a point above them, having drawn four straight league games.
Match preview
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They have collected a handful of points recently, but Eduardo Souza has not been able to get the best out of his side in recent weeks, as his players have not done enough to deserve a victory over the past few weeks.
As a result, the club from Goiania could be in for a fight to the finish to avoid relegation with only four matches remaining in this domestic campaign, as they are currently just a point ahead of Juventude and descent into the second tier.
This team have picked the wrong time to go on a slide, winless in seven straight league games and rarely generating much offence over that stretch, netting only twice.
Scoring has been an issue for them all year, with only 26 goals in Serie A after 34 matches, the second-lowest in the league behind only Sport Recife, but their defensive shape has usually been relatively solid, conceding 34 times, putting them in the top five in the league in that department.
While their possession-based approach has seen them with the ball more often than not in recent weeks, Dragao have rarely been able to do something with that, and although they fired eight targeted efforts versus Juventude on Tuesday, barely any of those shots were quality ones that troubled Douglas Friedrich.
Winning this game could be critical for their chances of remaining in the top-flight, seeing as two of their final three league games are on the road where they have not scored in six straight encounters, losing three of those fixtures.
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Bahia came out as determined as we have seen since the start of the month, taking an early 2-0 lead in their match with Gremio on Friday, in what was their first win since November 7.
That kind of offensive output is scarce for them, but something which will come as a pleasant surprise for Guto Ferreira and his team, who before that had not scored multiple goals in a game since putting three past a helpless Chapecoense in October, winning that game 3-0.
Their position in the top flight is precarious, to say the least, currently above the relegation zone only because they have one more win than Juve, so a victory on Monday could be imperative to their hopes of remaining in Serie A in 2022.
Baea have not beaten a side in the top half of the table since doubling Fortaleza 4-2 in early September, and with the season starting to wind down, that is one trend that they might need to change given how tight the standings are at the moment, not to mention the fact that all four of their remaining league matches are versus sides above them at the moment.
On Thursday, they showed that they do not always have to rely on Gilberto to win games as they got contributions from three different players, but at the same time, it was against a team in Gremio who have conceded their share of goals, allowing 47 of them this year, the second-most in Serie A behind only Chape.
One area which has seen a little improvement is their ability to hold onto a lead when striking first, having now gone on to win four consecutive fixtures in which they notched the opener, but scoring first has not happened for them as often as they would like, only being able to do so three times in their last seven matches.
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Team News
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Goianiense have got contributions from their top two attacking threats in recent matches, with Ze Roberto tallying his team-leading sixth of the campaign on Tuesday and Joao Paulo scoring their only goal in their previous encounter, his fourth of the year.
Fernando Miguel has been exceptional in goal for this team throughout 2021 with 14 clean sheets, the second-most in the league behind only Everson of Atletico Mineiro.
Arthur Henrique replaced Jefferson at fullback on Tuesday, while the rest of the starting 11 was unchanged from the side who began their match with Ceara, which ended in a 1-1 draw.
Matheus Bahia picked up his second goal of the season for the club from Salvador on Thursday, while Rai Nascimento scored his second and Daniel tallied for the first time.
For this one, Bahia will be without a couple of their starters as Nino Paraiba and Lucas Mugni were both cautioned in their win against Gremio, meaning that they will be suspended for this match.
On Thursday, Gustavo Henrique was inserted at the back, starting over Luiz Otavio, Mugni replaced Daniel as a holding midfielder, while in attack Rossi, Rodriguinho and Gilberto were all in the starting 11.
Atletico Goianiense possible starting lineup:
Miguel; Dudu, Eder, Henrique, Jefferson; Freitas, Maranhao; Luis, Paulo, Janderson; Ze Roberto
Bahia possible starting lineup:
Fernandes; Paraiba, Conti, Otavio, Bahia; Patrick, Daniel; Capixaba, Rossi, Rai; Gilberto
We say: Atletico Goianiense 1-0 Bahia
With the exception of Gilberto, neither side are particularly sharp in the final third, but Goianiense are a lot better at shutting down the opposition in transition than Bahia, who have not scored in four straight road games.
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Goianiense win with a probability of 49.09%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 23.36%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Goianiense win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.62%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (9.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Goianiense would win this match.
