Conference League | League Stage
Dec 19, 2024 at 8pm UK
Gradski stadion
Backa Topola4 - 3Noah
Form, Standings, Stats
We said: Backa Topola 2-0 FC Noah
With a hostile home crowd supporting them all the way, Backa Topola should be very confident of securing a win that could take them into the knockout stages of the Conference League. Noah need a victory on the road in the League Phase for the first time on Thursday, but we feel that the Armenians will fall short and consequently bow out of the competition. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Backa Topola win with a probability of 54.5%. A win for FC Noah had a probability of 24.51% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Backa Topola win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.96%) and 1-0 (6.63%). The likeliest FC Noah win was 1-2 (6.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Backa Topola would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Backa Topola | Draw | FC Noah |
54.5% ( 0.77) | 20.99% ( 0.54) | 24.51% ( -1.3) |
| Both teams to score 65.13% ( -3.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
