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Bayern logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 31
Apr 23, 2022 at 5.30pm UK
Allianz Arena
Dortmund logo

Bayern
3 - 1
Dortmund

Gnabry (15'), Lewandowski (34'), Musiala (83')
Nagelsmann (87')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Can (52' pen.)
Can (40'), Rose (41')

Preview: Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Saturday's Bundesliga action concludes with Der Klassiker at the Allianz Arena, with leaders Bayern Munich hosting second-placed Borussia Dortmund.

The hosts will clinch a 10th successive league title with a win, in what looks set to be a thrilling encounter for Germany's standout fixture.


Match preview

Bayern Munich's Robert Lewandowski celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on April 9, 2022© Reuters

A comfortable 3-0 victory at relegation-threatened Arminia Bielefeld last weekend has put Bayern on the brink of yet another Bundesliga title on Saturday.

An own goal from Jacob Laursen just 10 minutes in set the Bavarians well on their way, before further goals from Serge Gnabry and Jamal Musiala at the end of each half saw them cruise to a routine victory against the minnows.

Those three points took Julian Nagelsmann's side nine points clear at the top of the table, and has presented them with the ideal opportunity to confirm the retention of their Bundesliga crown against their competitive rivals.

Bayern may not have been anywhere near their best over recent weeks - with the two legs of their shock Champions League exit to Villarreal coming either side of their stumbling over the line at home to struggling Augsburg - but one thing that is an almost guarantee with this club is their ability to turn up on the day against Dortmund.

Three years have passed since Bayern were defeated by BVB, and five years since they were downed on home soil against their title challengers, with some comprehensive victories being recorded at the Allianz Arena along the way.

Complacency is unlikely to be an issue for the hosts on Saturday though, and with only the league left to play for in the remaining few weeks of the campaign, Nagelsmann will certainly be looking for his players to seal their inevitable title win in style.

Borussia Dortmund's Julian Brandt celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on April 8, 2022© Reuters

Meanwhile, Dortmund will be looking to stop the rot against the Bavarians when they make the trip on Saturday, with a seven-game losing streak in recent years sure to be on their minds.

Recent visits to the Allianz Arena have included 5-0 and 6-0 defeats, whilst Dortmund have conceded at least three goals to the league leaders in each of their last five meetings in all competitions.

Those defensive frailties, and a relative inconsistency, are what have hindered BVB's hopes of preventing Bayern's 10th consecutive title this season, as numerous unexpected slip ups from their rivals have gone unpunished throughout the campaign.

However, those kind of concerns were not anywhere in sight last time out, with a brace from Erling Braut Haaland helping Marco Rose's side on their way to a thumping 6-1 win over Wolfsburg at Signal Iduna Park last weekend.

Seventeen-year-old debutant Tom Rothe got the ball rolling midway through the first half, and within 15 minutes, Dortmund found themselves 5-0 up in a devastating display in the opening 45.

Axel Witsel, Manuel Akanji and Emre Can also got themselves on the scoresheet, but whilst finding the back of the net was not an issue last Saturday, and has also not been the problem in recent meetings with Bayern, their shaky back line is likely to be the biggest of their concerns this weekend.

If Dortmund can sure up their defence and plug the holes, then they could stand a chance of frustrating their hosts like numerous sides have in recent weeks, and should they manage to achieve an unlikely victory, then their glimmer of hope in the title race could be extended for another week.

Bayern Munich Bundesliga form:
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Bayern Munich form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W

Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W



Team News

Bayern Munich's Kingsley Coman celebrates scoring their first goal on February 16, 2022© Reuters

After missing out on last weekend's victory at Bielefeld, Kingsley Coman and Lucas Hernandez should be available to make their returns for Bayern on Saturday.

Marcel Sabitzer will be expected to make way for the former, whilst the inexperience of Tanguy Nianzou is unlikely to be risked at the back, with Hernandez likely to replace the 19-year-old.

Leroy Sane may have to settle for a place on the bench once more, whilst Corentin Tolisso and Bouna Sarr will miss the title-deciding clash due to hamstring and knee injuries respectively.

The duo will also be joined on the sidelines by Omar Richards, who looks set to miss out due to illness.

As for the visitors, a lengthy injury list has hampered Rose's options available to him for the daunting trip to the Allianz Arena.

First-choice goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has been ruled out due to an ankle injury, and an already wobbly Dortmund defence will remain without former Bayern defender Mats Hummels too.

The return to fitness of Raphael Guerreiro is a welcome boost however, with the full-back set to replace Rothe in the starting 11, despite the youngster's impressive debut last week.

Mahmoud Dahoud, Thomas Meunier, Mateu Morey, Marcel Schmelzer, Giovanni Reyna, Steffen Tigges and Witsel are all ruled out, whilst Donyell Malen and Thorgan Hazard are labelled as doubts to further restrict the options available to the away side.

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Upamecano, Hernandez, Davies; Kimmich, Goretzka; Gnabry, Muller, Coman; Lewandowski

Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Hitz; Pongracic, Akanji, Zagadou; Wolf, Bellingham, Can, Guerreiro; Brandt, Reus; Haaland


SM words green background

We say: Bayern Munich 4-2 Borussia Dortmund

As has been the case in recent years, this looks set to be a hugely entertaining game on Saturday, with both sides tending to ignore defensive concerns to focus on an attacking mindset in past meetings.

We believe that trend will continue here, with Bayern having too much for their visitors, who are missing a number of players and look incapable of being able to contain the threat of their hosts.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Written by
Matthew Tranter

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 66.08%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 15.48%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.33%) and 1-0 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.34%), while for a Borussia Dortmund win it was 1-2 (4.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Bayern vs Dortmund

Bayern Munich
71.0%
Draw
10.0%
Borussia Dortmund
19.0%
100
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern14103142123033
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1485132201229
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1483334201427
4RB Leipzig148332315827
5Freiburg147342019124
6Stuttgart146532924523
7Mainz 05Mainz146442519622
8Borussia DortmundDortmund146442521422
9Werder Bremen146442224-222
10Wolfsburg146353125621
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach146352319421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin144551315-217
13Augsburg144461627-1116
14Hoffenheim143561926-714
15St Pauli143291119-811
16Heidenheim1431101831-1310
17Holstein Kiel1412111437-235
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1403111135-243


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