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World Cup Group F permutations: Who needs what to qualify for the last 16?

Ahead of the final matchday in World Cup Group F, Sports Mole looks at what Belgium, Croatia, Morocco and Canada need to qualify for the last 16.

A competitive Group F comes to an end on Thursday as all four teams play their final group-stage matches of the World Cup at 3pm GMT.

Three teams in the section still have hopes of reaching the knockout stages, with the early exit of 2018's third-placed side Belgium a distinct possibility after some shocking results in the opening two matchdays.

Croatia and Morocco lead the way in Group F with four points, the Red Devils are in third with three points whilst Canada sit bottom of the group and are already out of the competition having failed to collect any points so far.

Here, Sports Mole looks at what each team needs to qualify for the last 16 of the 2022 World Cup.



CROATIA

Croatia forward Andrej Kramaric celebrates scoring against Canada in the World Cup on November 27, 2022.© Reuters

Croatia's chances of progressing into the last 16 looked in real danger when Alphonso Davies headed Canada into an early lead against the 2018 runners-up, but a clinical and convincing display from that point on from the Vatreni led to a 4-1 victory and means they are now in control of their own World Cup fate.

A win or a draw against Belgium at the Ahmed bin Ali Stadium would see Croatia advance to the last 16, with either three or one point potentially enough to see Zlatko Dalic's side secure top spot in the group

Three points would guarantee top spot for Croatia if Morocco fail to beat Canada, whereas a draw could see the Croatians finish first if Morocco also draw in their matchup against The Reds.

Defeat for Croatia would leave them relying on eliminated Canada to beat Morocco, in which case the Vatreni and the Atlas Lions would need to be separated by goal difference to determine which side finishes in second place.



MOROCCO

Morocco celebrate scoring against Belgium at the World Cup on November 27, 2022.© Reuters

Morocco are arguably in the best position to qualify out of the group on Thursday considering they are level on points with group leaders Croatia and face a Canada side who are already knocked out of the tournament.

If Walid Regragui can guide his Morocco side to either a win or a draw against Canada, the Atlas Lions will qualify for the last 16 for only the second time in the nation's history.

Should Morocco lose to The Reds at the Al Thumama Stadium, the North Africans would need to hope Belgium defeat Croatia and that their goal difference ends up superior to that of Dalic's side, with Croatia boasting a one-goal advantage in that metric going into these final set of matches.

Regargui's men would secure a first-placed finish in Group F if they beat Canada and Croatia fail to beat Belgium, a combination of results that would set up a last-16 tie with the runners-up of Group E for Morocco.



BELGIUM

Belgium's Kevin De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere look dejected after Morocco's second goal on November 27, 2022© Reuters

Belgium's golden generation is beginning to lose its shine and require a positive result in their final game of Group F to book a place in the knockout stages that many predicted them to achieve at a canter.

The Red Devils will qualify for the last 16 with a win against Croatia, whereas a loss would see them heading home with this World Cup not even a fortnight old.

A draw for Roberto Martinez's side could be enough for a top-two position in the group if Morocco lose to Canada - although the Atlas Lions currently have a three-goal advantage in the goal-difference measure that would be used to determine who progresses in that eventuality.

There is a way Belgium can still end up first in Group F, with a Belgian win coupled with Morocco failing to beat the Canadians sufficient for Martinez's men to finish top of the pile.



CANADA

Alphonso Davies scores a header for Canada against Croatia at the World Cup on November 27, 2022.© Reuters

Despite showing glimpses of real attacking ability against both Belgium and Croatia, Canada are unable to qualify for the last 16 after losing their two opening games of this group-stage campaign.

Bayern Munich's Davies scored The Reds' first-ever World Cup goal in the early stages against Dalic's Croatians, and John Herdman will be looking to guide his team to a maiden victory on football's biggest stage when they face Morocco on Thursday.

Although Herdman's men are unable to progress to the knockout stages, a win in their final game of this World Cup could see them finish above European giants Belgium if the Red Devils lost to Croatia and a three-goal margin in goal difference was overturned in the process.

With qualification for the 2026 World Cup already secured due to Canada co-hosting the tournament, ending this year's competition with an unexpected win against the North Africans could really help build the excitement in a nation that has only participated at this level on one previous occasion.


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Morocco coach Walid Regragui in September 2022
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