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World Cup Group E permutations; Who needs what to qualify for the last 16?

Ahead of the final matchday in Group E, Sports Mole looks at what Spain, Germany, Japan and Costa Rica need to qualify for the last 16 of the 2022 World Cup.

The unpredictable Group E of this year's World Cup reaches its conclusion on Thursday, as all four teams play their final matches in the section at 7pm GMT.

All of the teams in the group still have a realistic chance of qualifying to the knockout stages, with massive upsets possible at the Khalifa International and Al Bayt Stadiums, with two European giants still having work to do in order to finish in top-two positions.

Spain lead Group E with four points heading into the final matchday with Japan and Costa Rica both sitting on three points, whereas four-time winners Germany lie in fourth place, boasting just a single point and needing other results to go their way if they are to progress.

Here, Sports Mole looks at what each team needs to qualify for the last 16 of the 2022 World Cup.



SPAIN

Spain's Gavi celebrates scoring their fifth goal on November 23, 2022© Reuters

Luis Enrique's side are in control of the group after they followed up a dominant 7-0 victory over Costa Rica with a point against Germany on Sunday, leaving them with a healthy four points from their opening two matches.

A win or a draw for Spain against Japan will be enough to guarantee their place in the last 16, with a victory securing top spot in the group - although La Roja would top the group with a draw if Costa Rica fail to beat Germany.

If Spain were victims to another shock Japanese victory and Costa Rica managed to beat Germany, Enrique's side would be knocked out of the competition.

A Spanish loss combined with either a draw between Costa Rica and Germany or a German win would see La Roja's progression rely on goal difference, with Spain currently possessing a seven-goal advantage over Japan and an eight-goal lead over Germany in that metric.



JAPAN

Japan's Ritsu Doan celebrates scoring against Germany at the World Cup on November 23, 2022© Reuters

Japan would have already booked their place in the knockout stages had they beaten Costa Rica on Sunday, but the Samurai Blue were hit with a late Los Ticos winner to leave them with work to do against Spain on Thursday.

A win over Spain at the Khalifa International Stadium will secure their place in the last 16 and also mean Japan finish top of the group unless Costa Rica defeat Germany and overturn a six-goal margin in goal difference in the process - an assignment that is virtually impossible for Los Ticos.

If Japan draw against Spain and the match between Costa Rica and Germany ends level then Hajime Moriyasu's men will qualify for the knockout stages in second place.

A Japanese draw coupled with a Costa Rican victory would see Japan exit the competition, whereas a Japan draw combined with a German win would see the two sides separated by goal difference to work out who progresses.

The maths is simple if Samurai Blue were to lose against Spain - either Costa Rica or Germany would move above them in the standings and leave Moriyasu's men packing their bags despite an inspirational start to the tournament.



COSTA RICA

Costa Rica's Keysher Fuller scores against Japan at the World Cup on November 27, 2022© Reuters

After a passive display which led to a heavy defeat against Spain in their opening game, Costa Rica seemed destined to join Qatar and Canada in being teams to be knocked out of this World Cup after just two matches.

However, a narrow win over Japan on Sunday means Los Ticos will reach the last 16 for the first time since 2014 if they beat Germany at Al Bayt Stadium on Thursday night.

A draw against the Germans would secure Costa Rica a top-two finish if Spain beat Japan, but goal difference would be needed to separate Costa Rica and Spain if the Samurai Blue managed to defeat Enrique's side, with Spain currently 13 goals ahead in that metric.

A stalemate in both games on Thursday would see Luis Fernando Suarez's men dumped out of the tournament in third place, with a Costa Rican defeat against Germany also spelling the end of Los Ticos' journey in Qatar.



GERMANY

Germany's Niclas Fullkrug celebrates scoring against Spain at the World Cup on November 27, 2022© Reuters

Germany's progression to the knockout stages of this World Cup was in severe jeopardy after an embarrassing loss to Japan in their opening game, but Costa Rica's win over the Samurai Blue coupled with a stalemate between the Germans and Spain means Hansi Flick's side still have a realistic chance of reaching the last 16.

Die Mannschaft need to beat Costa Rica to give themselves any hope of finishing in the top two, with a win for Flick's men combined with a Spanish win over Japan enough to see Germany through.

If Germany win whilst Spain and Japan draw, the four-time winners would be level on points with the Japanese, meaning they would need to be separated by goal difference.

Three points for Germany as well as a Spanish loss would see those two sides equal on four points and goal difference would be the deciding factor once again to determine who progresses into the last 16.

A German draw or loss against Costa Rica would see them booted out of the World Cup at the group stage in consecutive tournaments for the first time in the nation's history.


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Costa Rica's Keysher Fuller scores against Japan at the World Cup on November 27, 2022
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