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Dortmund logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 32
May 8, 2021 at 2.30pm UK
Signal Iduna Park
Leipzig logo

Dortmund
3 - 2
RB Leipzig

Reus (7'), Sancho (51', 87')
Hummels (74')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Klostermann (63'), Olmo (77')
Haidara (90+1')

Preview: Borussia Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Borussia Dortmund entertain RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on Saturday in a dress rehearsal of next Thursday's DFB-Pokal final.

Both sides still have plenty left to play for in the league, however, with Dortmund chasing a Champions League qualification spot and Leipzig still mathematically able to overtake league leaders Bayern Munich.


Match preview

Borussia Dortmund caretaker manager Edin Terzic pictured on February 20, 2021© Reuters

Dortmund comfortably booked their place in the final of the DFB-Pokal for the 10th time in their history with a crushing 5-0 win against second-tier outfit Holstein Kiel last weekend.

Edin Terzic, who will be replaced by Marco Rose as BVB's head coach in the summer, will be hoping to bow out as the fifth manager to win Germany's domestic cup competition for Dortmund after Giovanni Reyna (twice), Marco Reus, Thorgan Hazard and Jude Bellingham all scored in a blitzkrieg first half.

Perhaps more importantly for Dortmund, though, certainly from a financial standpoint, as well as increasing their chances of keeping hold of the likes of Jadon Sancho and Erling Braut Haaland this summer, is ensuring that they finish inside the top four places and qualify for the Champions League for a sixth successive season.

Those hopes looked dead in the water after losing to top-four rivals Eintracht Frankfurt just over a month ago, but a run of four consecutive Bundesliga victories has put BVB right back into the mix.

The most recent of those was a particularly crucial one, with third-placed Wolfsburg beaten by Haaland's brace despite Bellingham being sent off just before the hour mark.

Dortmund head into the weekend only one point behind Frankfurt and two points behind Wolfsburg with three matches remaining, so a win could take them as high as third place depending on results elsewhere.

Despite Leipzig still having a chance of winning the Bundesliga, Julian Nagelsmann will be all too aware that those hopes are incredibly slim with Bayern only needing to win one of their last three matches to wrap up a ninth successive title, so it may not be a bad time for Dortmund to be playing them in the league at all ahead of Thursday's cup final.

RB Leipzig coach Julian Nagelsmann pictured on January 23, 2021© Reuters

Indeed, with Nagelsmann set to replace Hansi Flick as Bayern manager in the summer, the 33-year-old may feel that he will have several opportunities in the upcoming years to win Bundesliga titles.

As such, his priority may be winning both his first trophy as a manager and Leipzig's first major trophy as a club after Die Roten Bullen's dramatic 2-1 win after extra time against Werder Bremen in last Friday's DFB-Pokal semi-final.

Florian Kohfeldt's side, who are currently on a run of seven successive league losses, proved somewhat surprisingly stubborn opponents throughout the affair, with Leipzig amassing 28 shots and 65% possession.

Substitute Hwang Hee-chan finally found the breakthrough after 93 minutes, only for Leonardo Bittencourt to equalise in injury time of the first half of extra time.

However, in the dying seconds of the match, Hwang turned provider to allow Emil Forsberg to apply the finishing touch and sink Bremen hearts.

While Leipzig must beat Dortmund on Saturday to keep their outside title hopes alive, Nagelsmann may be treating it as more of a trial run for Thursday's final.

Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga form:
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

RB Leipzig Bundesliga form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W

RB Leipzig form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W



Team News

Erling Braut Haaland in action for Borussia Dortmund on April 10, 2021© Reuters

Bellingham is suspended after his dismissal against Wolfsburg, but the 17-year-old will be available once again for Thursday's DFB-Pokal final against Nagelsmann's side.

Mahmoud Dahoud could join Emre Can or Thomas Delaney in midfield having missed the semi-final win over Holstein Kiel due to suspension himself.

Haaland was not risked in the semi-final due to a minor muscle injury, and Terzic may be tempted to spare his top goalscorer for the final.

However, with points desperately required to finish inside the top four, the 20-year-old will probably start, with Reyna likely to drop out of the side as a result after suffering a minor calf issue himself.

Mateu Morey, Youssoufa Moukoko, Dan-Axel Zagadou, Axel Witsel and Marcel Schmelzer are all unlikely to feature again this season due to injury.

Leipzig, meanwhile, are likely to have to wait even longer to hand Dominik Szoboszlai his debut, with the winger still a doubt due to the groin injury which has kept him sidelined since joining from Red Bull Salzburg in January.

Lazar Samardzic is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, while Christopher Nkunku, Tyler Adams, Lukas Klostermann and Marcel Halstenberg are all minor doubts.

As such, Nagelsmann could go with an unchanged side to the one which narrowly beat Bremen in the DFB-Pokal semi-final last weekend, although Forsberg will be hoping for a start after being the match-winner.

Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Hitz; Piszczek, Akanji, Hummels, Guerreiro; Dahoud, Can; Sancho, Hazard, Reus; Haaland

RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Orban, Konate, Upamecano; Mukiele, Kampl, Sabitzer, Haidara, Angelino; Forsberg, Sorloth


SM words green background

We say: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 RB Leipzig

Dortmund's need for a win is arguably greater than Leipzig's, who may be more focused on Thursday's DFB-Pokal final.

Haaland and Sancho caused Nagelsmann's side major problems in transition in the reverse fixture, so if they are allowed similar amounts of space to run into, there is little doubting their decisive quality.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Written by
Brett Curtis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 39.01%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 35.99% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Dortmund vs RB Leipzig

Borussia Dortmund
80.0%
Draw
10.5%
RB Leipzig
9.5%
105
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern15113147133436
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1595137211632
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1583435231227
4RB Leipzig158342420427
5Mainz 05Mainz157442820825
6Borussia DortmundDortmund157442822625
7Werder Bremen157442625125
8Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach157352520524
9Freiburg157352124-324
10Stuttgart156542925423
11Wolfsburg156363228421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin154561419-517
13Augsburg154471732-1516
14St Pauli154291219-714
15Hoffenheim153572028-814
16Heidenheim1531111833-1510
17Holstein Kiel1522111938-198
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1513111335-226


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