Two Bundesliga teams at the wrong end of the table will do battle at Borussia-Park on Saturday afternoon when Borussia Monchengladbach play host to Augsburg.
Die Borussen have lost six of their last nine league matches, while Die Fuggerstadter have lost three and drawn four top-flight games in the same period.
Match preview
© Reuters
Many would have thought that Borussia Monchengladbach's impressive 2-1 victory away at perennial Bundesliga winners Bayern Munich last month would act as a springboard for further success; however, their form has since declined which will be of concern to head coach Adi Hutter.
Die Borussen lost three successive games before playing out a 1-1 draw away at relegation-threatened Arminia Bielefeld last weekend, which saw Alassane Plea cancel out Janni Luca Serra's opener.
Relegation from the top tier would have been unthinkable for Monchengladbach at the start of this season, but they currently sit 13th in the Bundesliga standings and just one point above the relegation playoff position.
Monchengladbach's 23 points accumulated from their 21 league matches is their worst total at this stage of the season since 2010-11 – a campaign in which they went on to finish 16th, their lowest ranking to date since their return to the top flight three years earlier.
Hutter will be desperate for his team's fortunes to turn around quickly, though success on Saturday against Augsburg is not guaranteed, as they have failed to beat them in each of their last three meetings.
With challenging fixtures against Borussia Dortmund and Wolfsburg to come, Die Borussen know that they cannot afford any more slip-ups if they are to stay clear of the drop zone.
© Reuters
Augsburg claimed their first league victory in 2022 and ended a five-game winless run when they beat Champions League hopefuls Union Berlin 2-0 last weekend.
Goals either side of half time from Michael Gregoritsch and Andre Hahn helped the hosts secure their fifth Bundesliga win of the campaign, which has moved them four points above the bottom two.
Head coach Markus Weinzierl will have been delighted with his side's resilient performance but a run of good form is now required if they are to escape from danger.
Augsburg will be confident of claiming another victory on Saturday as they have won their last two meetings against Monchengladbach, including a slender 1-0 success in the reverse fixture earlier this season.
Die Fuggerstadter have, however, won only one of their last 17 top-flight matches on the road, with only Mainz (six) and Greuther Furth (one) accumulating fewer away points in 2021-22 than Weinzierl's men (seven).
- L
- D
- W
- L
- L
- D
- D
- W
- L
- L
- L
- D
- D
- D
- L
- D
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Monchengladbach midfielder Christoph Kramer remains in self-isolation after testing positive for COVID-19 last week, while Lars Stindl remains sidelined until March with a knee injury.
The absence of Kramer and Denis Zakaria, following his move to Juventus on deadline day, will likely see Kouadio Kone partner Florian Neuhaus in the middle of the pitch.
After starting the last four league matches on the bench, Marcus Thuram will be hoping to force his way into the first XI ahead of either Jonas Hofmann or Breel Embolo, while Ramy Bensebaini and Stefan Lainer are expected to provide width once again as wing-backs.
As for Augsburg, they will be without Tobias Strobl (ligament), Fredrik Jensen (muscle) and Ricardo Pepi (nose) due to injury.
After claiming a much-needed win last time out, Weinzierl may decide to name the same starting lineup, which would see Hahn and Ruben Vargas provide support in the final third for strikers Gregoritsch and Florian Niederlechner.
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Ginter, Friedrich, Elvedi; Lainer, Neuhaus, Kone, Bensebaini; Hofmann, Plea; Embolo
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Gumny, Gouweleeuw, Oxford, Iago; Maier, Dorsch; Hahn, Vargas; Niederlechner, Gregoritsch
We say: Borussia Monchengladbach 1-1 Augsburg
Given Augsburg's most recent performance and their record against Monchengladbach, the visitors should be confident of claiming another positive result on Saturday.
The hosts, meanwhile, are desperate for a victory to steer themselves clear of danger, but they may have to settle for just a point on this occasion.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 56.37%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 21.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.4%) and 2-0 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.33%), while for an Augsburg win it was 1-2 (5.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Monchengladbach would win this match.
