Brasileiro | Gameweek 18
Jul 21, 2024 at 3pm UK
Arena do Gremio
Gremio2 - 0Vitoria
We said: Gremio 2-1 Vitoria
Vitoria have claimed only one road victory in eight attempts, losing five on their travels, and that sole triumph came against the league's bottom club. Despite Gremio's away scoring form to net a goal in five consecutive road games, the home side's recent improvement on their turf suggests they might turn the corner with their home advantage this weekend. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 56.3%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Vitoria win it was 0-1 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gremio | Draw | Vitoria |
56.3% ( 0.58) | 23.39% ( -0.39) | 20.3% ( -0.19) |
| Both teams to score 50.96% ( 0.91) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.02% ( 1.36) | 48.97% ( -1.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.94% ( 1.22) | 71.05% ( -1.22) |
| Gremio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.79% ( 0.71) | 17.2% ( -0.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 52.52% ( 1.23) | 47.48% ( -1.24) |
| Vitoria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.54% ( 0.58) | 38.45% ( -0.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 24.79% ( 0.55) | 75.2% ( -0.56) |
| Score Analysis |
Gremio 56.29%
Vitoria 20.3%
Draw 23.39%
| Gremio | Draw | Vitoria |
| 1-0 @ 11.64% ( -0.38) 2-0 @ 10.24% ( -0.09)2-1 @ 9.79% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 5.75% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 2.75% ( 0.12)4-0 @ 2.65% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 2.53% ( 0.13)4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.08)5-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.8% Total : 56.29% | 1-1 @ 11.12% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 6.61% ( -0.38)2-2 @ 4.68% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.97% Total : 23.39% | 0-1 @ 6.32% ( -0.26) 1-2 @ 5.32% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.49% Total : 20.3% |
How you voted: Gremio vs Vitoria
Gremio
77.3%Draw
9.1%Vitoria
13.6%22
Head to Head
Nov 25, 2018 7pm
