Brazil and Colombia lock horns in the standout clash on matchday 13 of CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying on Thursday night.
Both nations endured a disappointing November window, losing ground on those above them, but they look set to comfortably reach the finals next summer.
Match preview
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The expanded World Cup format has benefited South American nations more than most, especially Brazil, who would have been in grave danger of missing the finals if it was still a 32-team tournament.
Brazil enter this week's fixtures down in fifth, which would have only previously been good enough for a playoff place, with Paraguay also breathing down their neck, but the top six will now all advance.
The Selecao have taken a very disappointing 18 points from 36 so far, but after two hugely important wins over Peru and Chile in October, dropping points against both Venezuela and Uruguay a month later was not as costly.
Dorival Junior remains in charge, but it is difficult to see that still being the case at the finals next summer given their disappointing qualifying campaign and shortcomings in the Copa America last year.
Ahead of a trip to Argentina next week, a win would be handy in this one to take some of the pressure off that fixture, which will be hugely charged, when points are still required.
Brazil will, remarkably, be keeping one eye on the results of Bolivia and Venezuela this month, hoping they are unable to make ground on them to ensure they do not have to play under the type of pressure they endured in October when they simply had to win in Chile and at home to Peru.
Colombia are up next for the Selecao, and they have never lost a home fixture against Los Cafeteros in 14 previous meetings, including the famous World Cup quarter-final in Fortaleza in 2014.
Luis Diaz's double in the reverse fixture back in November 2023 was the first time Colombia had ever beaten Brazil in a World Cup qualifier, and set them up perfectly to reach the finals.
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However, following a remarkable start that saw manager Nestor Lorenzo remain unbeaten in his first 25 matches in charge, Colombia have now lost four of the last seven.
Defeat in the Copa America final may have played a role in their drop off in qualifying, but there have been some hugely worrying results which cannot simply be put down to complacency.
Lorenzo's men beat Chile as expected, but they ended 2024 with three defeats in four, including against a Bolivia side that played 70 minutes with 10 men, and at home to Ecuador, who were also a man light for 65 minutes.
While the altitude in Bolivia can offer an explanation, there was none for the Ecuador defeat, as Colombia were extremely wasteful in front of goal, failing to convert any of their 26 shots across 90 minutes.
A dramatic defeat in Uruguay has also done little to improve morale, because despite equalising on 96 minutes, Manuel Ugarte's winner 11 minutes into added time saw Marcelo Bielsa's side avenge the semi-final Copa America defeat.
Colombia have dropped from a comfortable second to fourth in the space of two months, but the margin inside the top six they enjoy is still a healthy six points, and even if they do fall to another defeat in Brazil here, they have a favourable fixture at home to Paraguay next week.
Team News
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Neymar was called up to the Brazil squad after a 17-month layoff, but injury has gotten the better of him again and he has been forced to withdraw, with Endrick coming in to replace him.
Lucas Paqueta, Ederson and Igor Jesus are among the surprise omissions, while there is also no room for Lucas Moura and Oscar, who are now both back where it all began with Sao Paulo.
Eder Militao, Bremer and Danilo are all absent with injury at the back, while goalkeeper Ederson Moraes and striker Richarlison will also miss out with recent setbacks.
James Rodriguez announced himself to the world in Brazil during the 2014 World Cup, scoring in the quarter-final defeat to the Selecao, and he should be back to captain his country in this one.
Luis Diaz's form has fallen off a cliff at Liverpool in recent weeks, but he will still be the main man for the visitors, while Jhon Duran's selection has not been affected by his recent move to Saudi Arabia.
Crystal Palace's Daniel Munoz is one of the most in-form players in the squad, and he had the weekend off recently along with teammate Jefferson Lerma, as the Eagles were not in action due to the EFL Cup final taking place.
Brazil possible starting lineup:
Alisson; Vanderson, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Alex Sandro; Gerson, Bruno Guimaraes; Rodrygo, Raphinha, Vinicius Junior; Cunha
Colombia possible starting lineup:
Vargas; Munoz, Lucumi, Sanchez, Mojica; Lerma, Rios; Arias, James, Diaz; Duran
We say: Brazil 2-1 Colombia
Going to Brazil used to be the most daunting trip in international football, but the Selecao have taken just 11 points from their six home games so far, and that will give Colombia much hope heading into this one.
The hosts have improved slightly of late though, taking eight points from their last four games, and with a full-strength side available to Dorival, they should just get over the line here against a Colombia side that has struggled of late.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Andrew Delaney
Argentina
Uruguay
Ecuador
Colombia
Brazil
Paraguay
Bolivia
Venezuela
Chile
Peru
