After suffering their first Serie A loss since January last week, Lazio look to bounce back against an improving Cagliari side on Saturday evening.
Having lost three of their last six games in all competitions, the capital club travel to Sardinia needing points to stay in contention for European qualification, while their hosts have been among the league's form teams in recent weeks.
Match preview
© Reuters
Only days after their exit from the Europa League was confirmed by a second-leg draw with Porto, inconsistent Lazio were apparently on the brink of salvaging a point from last Sunday's high-profile clash with Napoli, but for a dramatic conclusion to events in Rome.
When Pedro volleyed home a brilliant equaliser in the dying moments, the Aquile seemed set to secure a 1-1 result which would aid their push for a return to Europe next term, while keeping their southern rivals off the top of the Serie A standings.
However, with the finishing line in sight, Maurizio Sarri saw his current side capitulate to his former club, who snatched victory with Fabian Ruiz's even sweeter stoppage-time strike.
With Lazio having previously been eliminated from the Coppa Italia following a 4-0 defeat to Milan last month, any hopes of claiming silverware this year have vanished, and only surpassing bitter rivals Roma - who occupy the final European spot - is left in their sights.
For all their faults this season, the Biancocelesti are unbeaten in three Serie A away games for the first time under Sarri as they prepare for Saturday's late kickoff, and visiting Cagliari has rarely been a problem for them in the recent past.
The Roman side have won each of their last three league matches in the Sardinian capital and are unbeaten in the last seven: their last away loss to the Rossoblu dates back to May 2013.
© Reuters
While Cagliari's recent record against Lazio leaves a lot to be desired - they are winless in 15 Serie A meetings; losing 12 times in the process - they were within minutes of a surprise success at Stadio Olimpico in September's reverse fixture, but ultimately had to settle for a 1-1 draw.
The Isolani have drawn several more games since then but failed to find wins as they sank towards the foot of the table throughout a disastrous late-autumn spell.
However, a recent revival has brought renewed hope to the club's fans, who have witnessed Walter Mazzarri steadily transform their fortunes. They have added 15 points to their Serie A total in 2022, with only Napoli, Verona and Juventus claiming more during that time.
Following their win at Torino last week, Cagliari have lost only once since the start of the year and are above the dotted line denoting the bottom three - albeit having played a game more than 18th-placed Venezia.
Though Il Toro marksman Andrea Belotti pounced to score an equaliser at the start of the second half last Sunday, Mazzarri's men left Turin with three precious points thanks to an Alessandro Deiola goal in the 62nd minute - securing just a third mainland victory of the campaign.
Now the Rossoblu return to home soil, where they will hope to deny the top flight's second-most potent attack with a rearguard that ranks among the leakiest in Serie A.
- L
- D
- W
- D
- D
- W
- L
- D
- W
- D
- D
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- D
- L
- L
- W
- L
- D
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
While midfielder Daniele Baselli remains doubtful due to an ankle issue, and Nahitan Nandez is training separately as he continues his comeback trail, Cagliari have no fresh injury problems this weekend.
For that reason, Walter Mazzarri could be poised to name an unchanged team from that which started against Torino, but if any changes are to be made, they could occur up front.
Leonardo Pavoletti and converted forward Gaston Pereiro will again battle it out to join captain Joao Pedro in the hosts' front pairing, but former Lazio striker Keita Balde - who scored his first Rossoblu goal in the reverse fixture - is an alternative option, despite not starting since December.
Lazio, meanwhile, welcomed Pedro back from an ankle problem last time out, and centre-back Francesco Acerbi also completed his comeback after several weeks on the sidelines - however, Manuel Lazzarri is still ruled out on Saturday.
In midfield, Danilo Cataldi is unavailable, so Lucas Leiva should continue in the visitors' three-man engine room after impressing against Napoli.
Mattia Zaccagni has been directly involved in four goals in his last four league appearances, and starts alongside Ciro Immobile up front. Despite illness and injury, the latter has racked up 19 Serie A goals this term - one less than chief rival for the Capocannoniere crown, Dusan Vlahovic - and will make his 200th league appearance for the club.
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Goldaniga, Lovato, Altare; Bellanova, Grassi, Deiola, Marin, Dalbert; Pereiro, Pedro
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Hysaj, Acerbi, Felipe, Radu; Milinkovic-Savic, Leiva, Alberto; Pedro, Immobile, Zaccagni
We say: Cagliari 1-1 Lazio
Over the past two months, Cagliari have been made of sterner stuff, so will be no pushover for hit-and-miss Lazio when the teams convene on Saturday.
Precedent suggests that the visitors should add another win to their long list of successes over the Isolani, but a combination of grit and organisation can see the home side take another valuable point.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 45.97%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.22%) and 0-2 (8.04%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-0 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
