Middlesbrough have not started the season how they would have liked, but to their credit they have a decent home record and have notched decent home wins against Sunderland and Swansea.
However, despite the possibility of a new manager bounce, after recent form we do not think they will have enough to win the game, particularly with Birmingham being on a decent run.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 61.36%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 15.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.73%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.78%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 0-1 (6.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Middlesbrough in this match.
0.12) 
-0.08) 
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