China PR Women face Brazil Women on Wednesday in the opening matchday of Group F at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, with the game to be played at the Miyagi Stadium in Rifu.
Brazil have been an ever-present side in the Olympics since women's football was introduced in 1996, and China have been to all but one of the Olympic Games, missing out on London 2012.
Match preview
© Reuters
China qualified for this summer's Olympics alongside Australia - with Japan automatically entered into the competition as the host nation - through the AFC Women's Olympic qualifying tournament, which is set up by the Asian Football Confederation.
The side finished second in their group in Brazil five years ago, but lost to eventual winners Germany in the quarter-final, meaning that they could not match their best performance at an Olympic Games.
In their first appearance at the Olympics in 1996, China earned a silver medal after losing to hosts USA in Georgia.
Manager Jia Xiuquan has been in charge of China since 2018 but only managed a last-16 finish in the 2019 France World Cup, their earliest exit from the World Cup in their seven appearances.
China have not played any friendlies since April, but their opponents on Wednesday organised two warm-up games last month in preparation for this summer.
Brazil defeated Russia 3-0 before a goalless draw with Canada ended their friendly fixtures last Wednesday.
Against Russia, a brace from defender Bruna Benites and a late strike from Andressa sealed the 3-0 victory for Pia Sundhage's side.
Brazil are always considered as strong contenders for a medal at the Olympic Games, having won two silver medals in 2004 and 2008, and continuously reaching the semi-final stage, bar the tournament in 2012.
The South American side would have hoped to achieve more at their home tournament five years ago when they finished fourth, after losing to Sweden on penalties in the semi-final and being beaten by Canada in the bronze medal match.
Brazil captain Marta has won FIFA's World Player of the Year award six times and gives her nation a lot of hope at any tournament having scored 109 goals in 159 appearances for her country.
- W
- D
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Captain of China's team this summer is midfielder Wang Shuang, who has scored 30 times in 106 appearances for her country, and has Olympic experience from 2016.
Wang Shanshan is expected to lead the line for Xiauquan's side on Wednesday, posing a big goal threat having scored 49 goals in 141 caps.
Wu Haiyan provides defensive stability at the back for China, and she will use her 124 caps as experience to protect Peng Shimeng in goal.
OL Reign's Angelina was a late addition to the Brazil squad after replacing fellow midfielder Adriana, who had to withdraw through injury.
Brazil have a recent Champions League winner in their ranks, as 18-year-old Giovana plays for Barcelona, who beat Chelsea 4-0 in the final in May.
China PR Women possible starting lineup:
Shimeng; Haiyan, Guiping, Yuping, Xiaoxue; Shuang, Xin, Yan, Lina; Shanshan, Man
Brazil Women possible starting lineup:
Barbara; Tamires, Rafaelle, Erika, Benites; Duda, Julia, Formiga; Marta, Debinha, Beatriz
We say: China PR Women 0-2 Brazil Women
Brazil have kept two clean sheets in their two warm-up friendlies and that should have built good foundations to build upon coming into the Olympics.
China will be a difficult challenge for Brazil as they have a lot of experience in their squad, however the quality of Marta and her national teammates should be enough to beat China on Wednesday.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil Women win with a probability of 42.25%. A win for China PR Women had a probability of 34.91% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brazil Women win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.3%) and 0-2 (5.51%). The likeliest China PR Women win was 2-1 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brazil Women would win this match.
