Clermont head into their meeting with Brest on Sunday afternoon looking to extend their two-point advantage over the Ligue 1 relegation zone.
At a time when the visitors are scrapping for their top-flight future, Brest are safely in mid-table, a consequence of claiming successive victories.
Match preview
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Having failed to win any of their opening 11 league fixtures this campaign, Brest could not have envisaged a situation where they would be out of relegation trouble at this stage.
However, a six-match winning streak catapulted them up the table, and a recent 10-point burst from five fixtures has ultimately got them over the line.
Michel Der Zakarian's team now sit 14 points clear with four games remaining, the Pirates following a brilliant victory over Lyon by edging out bottom-placed Metz away from home.
Although their pre-season target has already been achieved, they currently have enough momentum to challenge for 10th and ninth place, the current gap to the former being five points.
The goals continue to be shared around this squad, but it was winger Youcef Belaili who netted his first league goal of the season against Metz.
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While Brest are in a position where they can play without freedom, the same cannot be said for a Clermont side who are fighting for their top-tier status.
Nevertheless, the stakes being raised has seemingly suited Pascal Gastien's side, who have responded from suffering five successive defeats with five points coming from three outings.
The 2-2 draw with Angers last time out will be regarded as a bonus, the Lancers coming from two goals down with efforts in the closing 19 minutes.
Remarkably, Clermont's last six results away from home are identical to Brest's run of form at home, setting up what should be an entertaining tussle.
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Team News
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While Der Zakarian will considering making changes to his Brest starting lineup, they will be minimal after last weekend's win at Metz.
Martin Satriano could be drafted back into the attack as a replacement for Steve Mounie, while Lilian Brassier may get the nod in place of Christophe Herelle at centre-back.
The trio of Sebastien Cibois, Franck Honorat and Jeremy Le Douaron are not in a position to return from their respective injuries.
Mohamed Bayo and Lucas Da Cunha are both expected to feature in the Clermont XI after changing the course of the game with Angers.
Grejohn Kyei and Saif-Eddine Khaoui seem likely to drop down to the substitutes' bench, with Alidu Seidu an option in defence after serving a one-game ban.
Brest possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Duverne, Chardonnet, Brassier, Uronen; Magnetti, Agoume, M'Bock; Cardona, Satriano, Belaili
Clermont possible starting lineup:
Djoco; Zedadka, Billong, Ogier, Mendy; Magnin, Gastien, Samed; Dossou, Da Cunha; Bayo
We say: Brest 2-1 Clermont
Having recently shown their character to move outside of the drop zone, we fancy Clermont to push Brest all the way on Sunday afternoon. That said, we cannot ignore the improvements made by the home side, leading us to predict a narrow home victory.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 44.52%. A win for Clermont had a probability of 29.02% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (8.16%). The likeliest Clermont win was 0-1 (8.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brest would win this match.
