Colchester United and Exeter City face off at the Colchester Community Stadium on Thursday in the first leg of their League Two playoff semi-final tie.
Both league meetings in the regular season ended all square, but Exeter finished the shortened campaign seven points better off than Colchester and are considered the favourites here.
Match preview
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Clubs in League One and League Two voted to end the season early amid the coronavirus pandemic, with a points-per-game system used to determine the final position of each team.
Swindon Town went up to League One as champions, joined in the third tier next season by Crewe Alexandra and Plymouth Argyle.
It is now a shootout between Colchester, Exeter, Cheltenham Town and Northampton Town for the fourth promotion spot, with the playoffs being given the green light to commence.
The first of the semis is nicely teed up given the regular season fixtures between Colchester and Exeter finished 2-2 and 0-0 in December and January respectively.
The most recent of those encounters came at a time when both sides were on long unbeaten runs, but they both had underwhelming ends to the curtailed season.
Exeter lost 3-1 at Walsall in what proved to be their final game of the regular season on March 7, making it two defeats and two draws in their last four matches.
As for Colchester, they beat Carlisle United 3-0 on the same day, but they lost three of their previous four heading into that match.
That includes back-to-back home defeats to Grimsby Town and Cheltenham, though the U's did previously go nine matches without tasting defeat at the Colchester Community Stadium.
The Grecians have been pretty poor on their travels, meanwhile, losing back-to-back matches away from home and avoiding defeat in just one of their last four outings.
One thing the form guide cannot factor in, however, is both sides' preparations for this match during the three-month hiatus.
It is also worth pointing out, too, that the away side in both fixtures will likely have to travel on the day of the game due to a lack of available hotels.
Both fixtures will be played behind closed doors, of course, and that will also be the case at Wembley for the final on June 29.
Colchester's League Two form: WLLWLW
Exeter's League Two form: WWLDDL
Team News
Colchester boss John McGreal has a fully-fit squad to choose from following the three-month hiatus.
Theo Robinson was among the division's top goalscorers this term, netting 11 times in total, and is battling with Luke Norris to lead the line on Thursday.
Like their opponents, Exeter opted against staging any practice matches during the shutdown and instead focused on building up their fitness on the training ground.
Changes can be expected between the two legs given the quick turnaround in fixtures, but Matt Taylor will go with his strongest available side this week.
Colchester possible starting lineup:
Gerken; Jackson, Eastman, Prosser, Bramall; Pell, Stevenson; Poku, Nouble, Harriott; Robinson
Exeter possible starting lineup:
Ward; Richardson, Martin, Parkes, Dickenson; Atangana, Collins; Williams, Jay, Law; Bowman
We say: Colchester 1-1 Exeter
Exeter finished seven points better off than Colchester after 37 matches, but there was little to separate the sides in both league fixtures. The Grecians have lost back-to-back away matches and the same is true of the U's at home, so everything points to the first leg finishing all square.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 40.71%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 32.34% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (9.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Colchester United in this match.
