It will take a lot of good fortune for the Columbus Crew to have a chance at defending their MLS Cup title when they wrap up their 2021 regular season at home to the Chicago Fire on Sunday at Lower.com Field.
The Crew come into this match with points in four of their previous five fixtures but are three points back of a playoff berth in the Eastern Conference, while Chicago had a three-game unbeaten run snapped last week, losing 1-0 to New York City FC.
Match preview
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All it took for Caleb Porter's championship side to wake up was to realize that there was no way back unless they started winning, but at this stage, it could be too little too late.
Columbus need a lot of things to go right to make the playoff in 2021, first needing to secure a win, then crossing their fingers that the New York Red Bulls lose, and also having to rely on CF Montreal and DC United not winning, and finally scoring lots of goals to outlast the Red Bulls on goal difference.
To say the least, it will not be an easy task, but given how quickly the regular season standings have changed throughout the year, perhaps the football gods will smile on the reigning champions.
This side have been playing in elimination type games for quite some time, and except for a few hiccups, that desperation has turned around their fortunes, coming away with points in all but two of their last nine MLS games.
They have been stunned early in two of their previous three encounters, conceding less than 10 minutes into their match against the Red Bulls and then after only three minutes last Saturday versus DC United.
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Chicago have battled hard under the leadership of interim manager Frank Klopas, but it was not enough last Wednesday to extend their impressive unbeaten run.
After their defeat to the Pigeons, Klopas admitted that his team did not create a lot in attack, despite firing five shots on target.
However, one noticeable difference we see with Klopas in charge which we did not see as much of under Raphael Wicky is a more forward-thinking approach from this side, as they look a lot more dangerous in the attacking end of the field.
The Fire have put 26 shots on goal over their previous three encounters, scoring six times over that stretch and with goals in five consecutive matches before being shut out by New York.
This will be their first visit to Lower.com Field, and perhaps the new venue will turn around their fortunes in Columbus, as Chicago were winless in their previous 12 trips to the old Columbus Crew Stadium.
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Team News
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Lucas Zelarayan had a brace in their victory over the Black-and-Red, as he now has three goals in his last two games to go along with two assists.
Aidan Morris, Gyasi Zardes and Perry Kitchen have left knee injuries, Kevin Molino is still nursing a right knee problem, Waylon Francis has a left thigh issue and Artur is being hampered by pain in his right hip.
Chicago keeper Gabriel Slonina followed up his MLS Team of the Week performance by being named Man of the Match in their defeat to New York, making three splendid saves in the loss.
Kenneth Kronholm is out with a right knee injury, and Carlos Teran will be a question mark with a right thigh problem.
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Valenzuela, Williams, Jonathan, Moreira; Nagbe, Fraser; Santos, Zelarayan, Etienne; Berry
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Slonina; Navarro, Bornstein, Pineda, Sekulic; Medran, Gimenez, Gutierrez; Aliseda, Beric, Collier
We say: Columbus Crew 3-1 Chicago Fire
The Crew know that they need to score and score often, so we expect to see them play with a lot of aggressiveness while also hoping that a lot of things will go their way.
Chicago and Columbus can take a lot of pride in finishing out the regular season the way they have, but it appears as though neither will be playing for the MLS Cup this year.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 54.36%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 23.8% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 1-2 (6.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Columbus Crew would win this match.
