In a rematch of the 2023 MLS Cup final, the Columbus Crew will host Los Angeles FC on Sunday at Lower.com Field, with the Leagues Cup trophy on the line.
The Crew defeated the Philadelphia Union 3-1 to get to the final, while the Black and Gold walked away with a comfortable 4-0 triumph over the Colorado Rapids.
Match preview
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Over two months after losing the CONCACAF Champions Cup final versus Pachuca (3-0), the Crew are back with another chance to lift a major trophy this weekend.
Since entering this tournament with a bye into the round of 32, the Columbus attack has looked virtually unstoppable, averaging 2.75 goals per game in the knockout phase.
While their dynamic attack carried them to a comfortable semi-final triumph, this team have at times been sloppy in possession, giving away a cheap equaliser to Philly when playing out from the back against their opponents' press.
What has made them among the best sides in Major League Soccer (MLS) once again this year is their ability to recover from setbacks, coming back from a losing position to win twice at the Leagues Cup this season and answering the Union goal on Thursday with a winner two minutes before the interval.
The Crew are unbeaten in their previous 10 meetings against MLS Western Conference opponents across all competitions, winning those last three encounters by a combined score of 13-1.
Since Wilfried Nancy was appointed head coach before the 2023 MLS season, this team have only suffered two defeats in their 42 competitive games at Lower.com Field, boasting a goal differential of +59 over that stretch.
They have won three of their previous four final appearances in major tournaments, including the 2023 MLS Cup final, in which they defeated LAFC 2-1.
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Another outstanding attacking display on Thursday night has Los Angeles in the final of a major tournament for the fourth time since June 2023, including their MLS Cup final defeat to Columbus.
LA were equally dominant, if not more so, than Columbus in the knockout portion of this tournament, outscoring their four opponents by a 13-1 combined margin.
On the other hand, Steve Cherundolo's men have conceded just a single goal in the knockout stage but still comfortably defeated the San Jose Earthquakes in the last 16 (4-1).
In the Leagues Cup quarter-finals, the Black and Gold won their first-ever away match at this tournament in normal time, 3-0 versus the Seattle Sounders.
The Black and Gold have won three consecutive away matches across all competitions while going unbeaten in eight straight competitive fixtures as the visitors.
This team have only been behind once in the Leagues Cup this season, losing on penalties to the Vancouver Whitecaps in the group phase (4-2) after coming back to claim a 2-2 draw with a pair of goals in the latter stages.
Two of their three visits to Columbus have resulted in a victory for LAFC, with their lone triumph at Lower.com Field occurring in the 2022 MLS campaign (2-0).
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Team News
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Do not expect to see Evan Bush available for the final as the Crew goalkeeper is still nursing a wrist injury, while the club signed Malte Amundsen to a contract extension last week until 2027.
Only one newcomer did not feature in their quarter-final victory over New York City FC who was on the field against Philadelphia, as Alexandru Matan came on a minute before the 90.
Diego Rossi, a former LAFC player, had a brace for Columbus on Thursday, giving him the joint-most at this tournament (six), with Cucho Hernandez netting his second of the Leagues Cup this year.
On Thursday, the Black and Gold did not have Luis Muller available as he is still recovering from a hip injury, while Lorenzo Dellavalle will not be back this season, having previously suffered a torn ACL.
Only one new face that did not feature in their quarter-final clash got some minutes earlier this week, as Cristian Olivera came on as a substitute just beyond the hour mark, with David Martinez relegated to the bench throughout that encounter.
Mateusz Bogusz and Kei Kamara scored in the latter stages of the opening half, while Lewis O'Brien netted his first with LAFC and Denis Bouanga scored his sixth of the tournament, matching Rossi for first.
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Schulte; Moreira, Camacho, Cherberko; Farsi, Zawadzki, Nagbe, Arfsten; Ramirez, Rossi; Hernandez
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Lloris; Murillo, Chanot, Long; Palencia, Sanchez, Atuesta, Hollingshead; Bogusz, Kamara, Bouanga
We say: Columbus Crew 3-2 Los Angeles FC
These are two deserving finalists with plenty of experienced players who have a knack for showing up in big moments, and indeed, this encounter could go either way.
In the end, we have a little more faith in Nancy, who always seems to get his tactics right, while his side may have a psychological edge, having thumped LAFC earlier in the 2024 MLS campaign (5-1).
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 48.58%. A win for Los Angeles FC had a probability of 27.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.73%). The likeliest Los Angeles FC win was 1-2 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Columbus Crew would win this match.
