Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 64.59%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for America de Natal had a probability of 14.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.88%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.85%), while for an America de Natal win it was 0-1 (4.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.