Neither side is in top form on the domestic scene, but Flu's home advantage and long unbeaten record in this competition should see them cruise to victory. Only a point would keep Alianza's continental campaign alive, but they may be staring at a group-stage exit. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 65.86%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 14.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.35%), while for an Alianza Lima win it was 0-1 (4.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.

Result
Fluminense	Draw	Alianza Lima
65.86% ( -0.04)	19.71% ( 0.02)	14.43% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 50.97% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.08% (

-0.04)

42.91% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.68% (

-0.04)

65.31% (

0.04)

Fluminense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.81% (

-0.02)

12.18% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.16% (

-0.05)

37.83% (

0.04)

Alianza Lima Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.05% (

-0)

41.94% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.61% (

-0)

78.38% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Fluminense 65.85%

Alianza Lima 14.43%

Draw 19.71%

Fluminense	Draw	Alianza Lima
2-0 @ 11.32% 1-0 @ 10.75% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.84% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.95% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.9% ( -0) 4-0 @ 4.18% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.63% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.76% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.58% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.53% ( -0) Other @ 3.41% Total : 65.85%	1-1 @ 9.35% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.11% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.27% ( 0) Other @ 0.97% Total : 19.71%	0-1 @ 4.44% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.06% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.93% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.24% 1-3 @ 1.18% ( 0) Other @ 1.58% Total : 14.43%