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Copa Libertadores
Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Jul 7, 2022 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti

River Plate
0 - 0
Velez Sarsfield


Romero (53'), Mammana (90+3'), Alvarez (90+5')
FT

Garayalde (33'), Hoyos (51')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between River Plate and Velez Sarsfield, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

River Plate

Last Six:
Last Game: Huracan 3-2 River Plate
Monday, July 4 at 1am in Argentine Primera Division

Velez Sarsfield

Last Six:
Last Game: Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Tucuman
Saturday, July 2 at 10pm in Argentine Primera Division

We said: River Plate 2-0 Velez Sarsfield

 River Plate were not at their best in the opening fixture last week, but you do not get the reputation they have by luck, and this is a resilient group that know how to handle any situation which may arise. It is hard to envision Velez Sarsfield being able to keep Los Millonarios at bay for a second successive fixture, especially on their home field, where River have tallied 14 times in three Libertadores encounters this year. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 49.1%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 24.98%.

The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.3%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.28%), while for a Velez Sarsfield win it was 0-1 (8.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.

Result
River PlateDrawVelez Sarsfield
49.1% (-0.10700000000001 -0.11) 25.91% (0.030000000000001 0.03) 24.98% (0.073 0.07)
Both teams to score 49.09% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.7% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)54.29% (0.055 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.31% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)75.68% (0.044000000000011 0.04)
River Plate Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.86% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)22.14% (0.067 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.47% (-0.109 -0.11)55.52% (0.103 0.1)
Velez Sarsfield Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.04% (0.030999999999999 0.03)36.95% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.26% (0.032 0.03)73.74% (-0.037000000000006 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    River Plate 49.1%
    Velez Sarsfield 24.98%
    Draw 25.91%
River PlateDrawVelez Sarsfield
1-0 @ 12.33%
2-0 @ 9.3% (-0.017999999999999 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.26% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.67% (-0.018999999999999 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.65% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.32% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.76% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.75% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 3.05%
Total : 49.1%
1-1 @ 12.28% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 8.18% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
2-2 @ 4.61%
Other @ 0.85%
Total : 25.91%
0-1 @ 8.14% (0.025 0.03)
1-2 @ 6.11% (0.012 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.05% (0.016 0.02)
1-3 @ 2.03% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.53% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.35% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 24.98%

How you voted: River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield

River Plate
78.3%
Draw
8.7%
Velez Sarsfield
13.0%
23
Head to Head
Jun 30, 2022 1.30am
Velez Sarsfield
1-0
River Plate
Janson (15' pen.)
Perrone (21'), Gomez (41'), Pratto (70'), Medina (71')

Diaz (18')
Aug 14, 2021 10pm
River Plate
2-0
Velez Sarsfield
Jeremias Fernandez (50'), Romero (90')
Casco (15'), Fontana (80'), Armani (90'), Romero (90+1')

Caseres (65')
Sep 23, 2019 12am
River Plate
1-2
Velez Sarsfield
Fernandez (60')
Armani (82'), Montiel (83')
Dominguez (38'), Almada (83' pen.)
Bouzat (16'), Abram (19'), Gianetti (58'), Dominguez (87')
Dominguez (89')
Feb 4, 2019 12.30am
Velez Sarsfield
1-2
River Plate
Barreal (91')
Laso (66'), Galdames (72')
Gimenez (84')
Borre (49'), Quintero (86' pen.)
Palacios (62'), Suarez (79')
rhs 2.0
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