Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

Apr 4, 2024 at 11pm UK

Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Deportivo Garcilaso
3 - 2
Metropolitanos

Gentile (30'), Erustes (63' pen.), Gordillo (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Ortiz (25', 37')
Marchan (56'), Villete (58'), Villero (78')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Deportivo Garcilaso and Metropolitanos.

Form, Standings, Stats

Deportivo Garcilaso

Last Game: Deportivo Garcilaso 0-0 ADT (4-3 pen.)
Wednesday, March 6 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Metropolitanos

Last Game: Carabobo 1-1 Metropolitanos (4-5 pen.)
Wednesday, March 6 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Garcilaso win with a probability of 51.64%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Metropolitanos had a probability of 22.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Garcilaso win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a Metropolitanos win it was 0-1 (7.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Deportivo Garcilaso would win this match.

Result
Deportivo Garcilaso	Draw	Metropolitanos
51.64% ( 0.28)	25.39% ( -0.08)	22.96% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 48.54% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.02% (

0.13)

53.98% (

-0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.58% (

0.11)

75.42% (

-0.11)

Deportivo Garcilaso Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.08% (

0.17)

20.92% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.35% (

0.26)

53.65% (

-0.26)

Metropolitanos Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.37% (

-0.12)

38.62% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.63% (

-0.11)

75.37% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Deportivo Garcilaso 51.64%

Metropolitanos 22.96%

Draw 25.39%

Deportivo Garcilaso	Draw	Metropolitanos
1-0 @ 12.64% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.89% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 4.91% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.33% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.92% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.46% Total : 51.64%	1-1 @ 12.02% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 8.08% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0) Other @ 0.81% Total : 25.39%	0-1 @ 7.69% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.51% Total : 22.96%