Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 4, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Deportivo Garcilaso3 - 2Metropolitanos
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Deportivo Garcilaso and Metropolitanos.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Deportivo Garcilaso 0-0 ADT (4-3 pen.)
Wednesday, March 6 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Wednesday, March 6 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Carabobo 1-1 Metropolitanos (4-5 pen.)
Wednesday, March 6 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Wednesday, March 6 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Garcilaso win with a probability of 51.64%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Metropolitanos had a probability of 22.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Garcilaso win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a Metropolitanos win it was 0-1 (7.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Deportivo Garcilaso would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Deportivo Garcilaso | Draw | Metropolitanos |
51.64% ( 0.28) | 25.39% ( -0.08) | 22.96% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 48.54% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.02% ( 0.13) | 53.98% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.58% ( 0.11) | 75.42% ( -0.11) |
| Deportivo Garcilaso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.08% ( 0.17) | 20.92% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.35% ( 0.26) | 53.65% ( -0.26) |
| Metropolitanos Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.37% ( -0.12) | 38.62% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 24.63% ( -0.11) | 75.37% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
Deportivo Garcilaso 51.64%
Metropolitanos 22.96%
Draw 25.39%
| Deportivo Garcilaso | Draw | Metropolitanos |
| 1-0 @ 12.64% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.89% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 4.91% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.33% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.92% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.46% Total : 51.64% | 1-1 @ 12.02% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 8.08% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0)Other @ 0.81% Total : 25.39% | 0-1 @ 7.69% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.51% Total : 22.96% |
