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Cagliari logo
Coppa Italia | First Round
Aug 12, 2024 at 8.15pm UK
Sardegna Arena

Cagliari
3 - 1
Carrarese

Piccoli (33'), Pavoletti (41'), Prati (71')
Deiola (38')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Panico (55')
Capezzi (40'), Illanes Minucci (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Coppa Italia clash between Cagliari and Carrarese, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Modena 2-2 Cagliari
Saturday, August 3 at 4pm in Club Friendlies 3
Last Game: Carrarese 2-1 Catania
Saturday, August 3 at 5pm in Coppa Italia

We said: Cagliari 2-1 Carrarese

No matter what time of the season, Cagliari are generally tough to beat on Sardinian soil, and a fairly settled squad should start the 2024-25 campaign with a win; little Carrarese are Serie B newcomers and lack experience against top-tier opposition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 52.94%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Carrarese had a probability of 22.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 2-0 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a Carrarese win it was 0-1 (6.77%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.

Result
CagliariDrawCarrarese
52.94% (-0.436 -0.44) 24.1% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04) 22.95% (0.466 0.47)
Both teams to score 52.38% (0.679 0.68)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.12% (0.619 0.62)48.87% (-0.627 -0.63)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.02% (0.56 0.56)70.97% (-0.566 -0.57)
Cagliari Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.58% (0.063000000000002 0.06)18.41% (-0.07 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.43% (0.114 0.11)49.56% (-0.121 -0.12)
Carrarese Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.2% (0.779 0.78)35.79% (-0.785 -0.79)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.43% (0.795 0.79)72.56% (-0.80200000000001 -0.8)
Score Analysis
    Cagliari 52.93%
    Carrarese 22.95%
    Draw 24.09%
CagliariDrawCarrarese
1-0 @ 11.14% (-0.27 -0.27)
2-1 @ 9.69% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 9.43% (-0.2 -0.2)
3-1 @ 5.47% (0.014 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.32% (-0.101 -0.1)
3-2 @ 2.81% (0.067 0.07)
4-1 @ 2.31% (0.011 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.25% (-0.037 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.19% (0.031 0.03)
Other @ 3.31%
Total : 52.93%
1-1 @ 11.45% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 6.59% (-0.17 -0.17)
2-2 @ 4.98% (0.107 0.11)
3-3 @ 0.96% (0.042 0.04)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 24.09%
0-1 @ 6.77% (-0.029 -0.03)
1-2 @ 5.89% (0.113 0.11)
0-2 @ 3.48% (0.059 0.06)
1-3 @ 2.02% (0.08 0.08)
2-3 @ 1.71% (0.072 0.07)
0-3 @ 1.19% (0.045 0.05)
Other @ 1.91%
Total : 22.95%

How you voted: Cagliari vs Carrarese

Cagliari
90.0%
Draw
7.5%
Carrarese
2.5%
40
rhs 2.0
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