Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 38

May 23, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Sardegna Arena

Cagliari
2 - 3
Fiorentina

Deiola (64'), Mutandwa (85')
Sulemana (90+4'), Mina (90+2'), Sulemana (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Bonaventura (39'), Gonzalez (89'), Arthur (90+13' pen.)
Mandragora (44'), Biraghi (45+3'), Ranieri (45+2'), Bonaventura (71'), N'Zola (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Serie A clash between Cagliari and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cagliari

All competitions

Last Game: Sassuolo 0-2 Cagliari
Sunday, May 19 at 11.30am in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Fiorentina

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Fiorentina 2-2 Napoli
Friday, May 17 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

We said: Cagliari 1-1 Fiorentina

Cagliari playing at home almost always means goals at both ends of the field, and the added incentive of giving Ranieri the send-off he deserves will be an incredibly strong motivation for the Rossoblu to end the season on a high. Meanwhile, Fiorentina's exploits on the road often leave a lot to be desired, and as minds wander towards the Europa Conference League final, Ranieri's side can feel hopeful of stealing a point before the 72-year-old calls time on his illustrious career. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 47.8%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 26.13% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.19%) and 0-2 (8.96%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-0 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.

Result
Cagliari	Draw	Fiorentina
26.13% ( -0.13)	26.08% ( 0.1)	47.8% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 49.62% (

-0.4)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.9% (

-0.46)

54.1% (

0.47)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.48% (

-0.39)

75.52% (

0.4)

Cagliari Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.15% (

-0.36)

35.85% (

0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.37% (

-0.37)

72.63% (

0.38)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.36% (

-0.17)

22.64% (

0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.73% (

-0.27)

56.27% (

0.27)

Score Analysis

Cagliari 26.13%

Fiorentina 47.79%

Draw 26.07%

Cagliari	Draw	Fiorentina
1-0 @ 8.33% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 6.34% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 4.27% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.17% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 1.46% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.95% Total : 26.13%	1-1 @ 12.36% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 8.12% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 4.71% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.88% Total : 26.07%	0-1 @ 12.05% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 9.19% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 8.96% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 4.55% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 4.43% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.69% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.65% ( -0) Other @ 2.95% Total : 47.79%