Derby County play host to Coventry City on Saturday afternoon knowing that they have realistically reached a point where only wins will do if they are to remain in the Championship.
At a time when the Rams sit six points adrift of safety, Coventry are down in 11th position after losing three of their last four league matches.
Match preview
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Whether Derby survive in the Championship or are relegated to League One, manager Wayne Rooney will be immensely proud of the efforts of everyone involved at the club this season.
However, for all the credit that they deserve, their campaign is on the way to ending with a whimper after a run of five defeats in six games, the latest coming at Blackburn Rovers on Tuesday night.
Despite taking the lead at Ewood Park, Rooney's side were powerless to prevent their promotion-chasing opponents from posting a 3-1 victory, subsequently resulting in Derby losing ground on Reading and Barnsley.
With none of their direct rivals to come during the run-in, the East Midlands outfit are left to try to take advantage of their home matches, the fixture on Saturday one of five that they have remaining.
Having lost just three games at Pride Park all season, there is reason for optimism, but like on many occasions since the turn of the year, this feels like a pivotal game.
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The same can be said for a Coventry team who currently look like falling short in their bid to secure a top-six position at the end of the campaign.
As it stands, the Sky Blues are just one point off last year's total with nine games left, an achievement which should be appreciated, but their promotion quest has petered out in recent weeks.
Just four points have been collected from a possible 15 and although they impressively thrashed Sheffield United last weekend, that has now been forgotten having succumbed tamely at home to Hull City on Wednesday.
Going forward, the fixture list is certainly not in the favour of Mark Robins and his squad, and it leaves games such as the one against Derby as a contest that they simply have to win if they want to remain as dark horses for another stint in the Premier League.
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Team News
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Derby will be without Colin Kazim-Richards, who was stretchered off soon after being introduced as a substitute against Blackburn.
Having rotated his team for that game, the likes of Krystian Bielik, Festy Ebosele and Luke Plange could all return to the starting lineup.
If Michael Rose remains out of the Coventry side due to coronavirus, Ben Sheaf is expected to remain in the back three.
Kyle McFadzean could also miss a second successive game with a calf issue, but changes are expected to be made further forward.
Jordan Shipley and Martyn Waghorn could return to the side, potentially taking the places of Callum O'Hare and Matt Godden.
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Allsop; Byrne, Davies, Cashin, Buchanan; Bird, Bielik; Ebosele, Morrison, Lawrence; Plange
Coventry City possible starting lineup:
Moore; Hyam, Sheaf, Clarke-Salter; Dabo, Allen, Hamer, Maatsen; Shipley; Waghorn, Gyokeres
We say: Derby County 1-2 Coventry City
With a draw doing neither side any good, we expect both clubs to push hard for all three points at the weekend. However, with the home side under the greater pressure, that may benefit Coventry, who we are backing to claim a late win at Pride Park.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 40.23%. A win for Coventry City had a probability of 32.64% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Coventry City win was 0-1 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
