Crewe Alexandra have an opportunity to extend their unbeaten run at Gresty Road to five matches in all competitions when they welcome Sheffield Wednesday to northwest England on Saturday.
The Railwaymen are second from the bottom in League One despite a 2-0 win over Lincoln City earlier this week, while the Owls are unbeaten in 11 straight league fixtures, following a 0-0 draw against Portsmouth.
Match preview
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There is cautious optimism for David Artell, with his side recently taking some baby steps forward, following up a 2-0 victory against Doncaster in the second round of their Football League Trophy tie, with the same result on Tuesday against the Imps.
They dug themselves an early hole domestically, winning only one of their opening 17 league fixtures, as they have scored the fourth-fewest amount of goals in the league thus far (19) while conceding the second most after 21 games (36).
This team tend to overload certain areas of the pitch, be it on the back end with five defenders or in the middle with five midfielders.
Their strategy appears to be all about frustrating their opponents by preventing as much time and space as possible, while they are capable of breaking through opposing defences when putting together some neat interplay and having some clever positional rotation between their wingers, full-backs and central midfielders.
Starting matches a little sharper should be one of the things that Artell and his team might want to focus on, as five of their last seven goals scored have come in the second half.
A win this weekend would mean a lot to their chances of surviving in this division for a second consecutive campaign after only being promoted into League One in 2019-20.
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Building momentum and finding ways to earn points in the face of adversity is something that we have seen Sheffield Wednesday do a lot of lately, enabling them to be in the mix for a League One play-off position at this stage of the season.
Darren Moore called their draw against Pompey another positive result for his side, who were down to 10-men with 20 minutes remaining but held on to move to within two points of Plymouth Argyle and Oxford United in the race for one of those spots.
Following their relegation a season ago, Moore vowed to bring a more attractive brand of football to South Yorkshire with an aggressive approach, and a focus on attacking early and often.
While they have been an appealing side to watch, one area that Moore has seen his players struggle to deliver on in recent matches is being able to start on the front foot, conceding the opening goal in five of their previous seven matches played in all competitions.
For all the attacking that they do, it is a little surprising knowing that they have conceded the third-fewest goals in the league so far, allowing only 21 in their 21 matches played.
They come into this encounter not only with an impressive run of results, but the Owls have also held their own in enemy territory, unbeaten in seven straight road matches in league play.
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Team News
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Mikael Mandron scored both goals for the Railwaymen in their 2-0 win over Lincoln City as Dave Richards made two saves to collect a clean sheet.
Artell made several changes to his starting 11 in that match with Richards replacing Will Jaaskelainen in goal, while Billy Sass-Davies, Zac Williams, Rio Adebisi, Tom Lowery and Regan Griffiths were inserted into the lineup rather than Connor O'Riordan, Terell Thomas, Luke Murphy, Madger Gomes and Nathan Woodthorpe.
Ben Knight, who is on loan from Manchester City, scored a goal and an assist in their victory over Doncaster last week in their Football League Trophy match, while defender Kayne Ramsay, who was loaned to the team from Premier League side Southampton, has not played since October 2 when his side drew 2-2 with Cambridge United.
Burnley loanee Bailey Peacock-Farrell stopped all four shots that were fired his way on Tuesday for his first shutout since early November when his team drew 0-0 in the opening round of their FA Cup tie with Plymouth Argyle, only to lose the replay 3-0.
Lewis Gibson is struggling with his fitness, while Massimo Luongo will be suspended for this match after the Australian was red-carded in the 69th minute on Tuesday.
Lee Gregory leads the team in League One goals with seven, Florian Kamberi is second with four, while Olamide Shodipo notched his first of the season in their draw with Wycombe at the end of November, with Josh Windass scoring his second.
Crewe Alexandra possible starting lineup:
Richards; Adebisi, Williams, Sass-Davies, Offord, Johnson; Lowery, Finney, Murphy; Mandron, Knight
Sheffield Wednesday possible starting lineup:
Peacock-Farrell; Brennan, Palmer, Paterson; Shodipo, Byers, Dele-Bashiru, Wing, Hunt; Gregory, Kamberi
We say: Crewe Alexandra 1-2 Sheffield Wednesday
Momentum is with the Railwaymen heading into this fixture, and even though they are not as bad as their current record would indicate, they have only beaten one team, currently in the top 10 in League One.
The Owls have quality and consistency in abundance, and their rental players have made a significant impact for them this season, and we expect those individuals to propel them to another road win this weekend.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sheffield Wednesday win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 30.87% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sheffield Wednesday win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 (9.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sheffield Wednesday would win this match.
