Slovakia and Croatia continue their World Cup qualifying campaign on Saturday evening in a group where top and bottom are separated by just three points.
While Croatia could move clear at the top of Group H with victory at the weekend, defeat in Bratislava wold put them at risk of dropping into the mid-table positions.
Match preview
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Holding the tag of finalists at the last World Cup, losing nine of their last 18 fixtures represents a considerable comedown for Zlatko Dalic and his squad.
To some degree, Croatia are going through a period of transition with some of their major players now the wrong side of 30, but that is no excuse for their inconsistency over the past 12 months.
While suffering a last-16 exit to Spain at Euro 2020 was far from a disgrace, only a second-half flurry against Scotland in the previous match booked their place in the knockout stages.
As far as World Cup qualification is concerned, Dalic will take the positives from Croatia topping Group H with a trip to Russia already out of the way.
That said, netting four times in as many games is not good enough for this squad, who find themselves under pressure to deliver against the only unbeaten nation left in the group.
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There is an argument that Slovakia have also under-performed during their qualifiers having being held by the likes of Cyprus and Malta.
On the flip side, Stefan Tarkovic will feel that his squad are very much on the up, a 2-1 triumph over Russia being followed by a draw away in Slovenia earlier this week.
Although that share of the spoils means that there is little margin for error, Slovakia now have the benefit of playing back-to-back home fixtures with Croatia and Cyprus.
Robert Bozenik, who has just left Feyenoord for Fortuna Dusseldorf, ended his near two-year wait for his fifth international goal by netting his side's opener on Wednesday night.
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Team News
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Tarkovic is likely to keep changes to his Slovakia XI down to a minimum for this game, particularly in defensive areas.
However, Robert Mak and Ondrej Duda are both options in midfield and attack respectively with Vladimir Weiss's place in the side at risk.
Having been withdrawn during the latter stages against Russia, Croatia centre-back Duje Caleta-Car appears to be a doubt for this contest.
Mile Skoric could be drafted into the team if the Marseille defender is unavailable, while Dalic has a decision to make regarding his attackers.
One of Andrej Kramaric or Ivan Perisic could drop out, allowing for Marko Livaja to make just his sixth outing for his country.
Slovakia possible starting lineup:
Rodak; Pekarik, Satka, Skriniar, Holubek; Hamsik, Lobotka, Kucka; Schranz, Bozenik, Mak
Croatia possible starting lineup:
Livakovic; Juranovic, Lovren, Skoric, Sosa; Pasalic, Brozovic, Kovacic; Vlasic; Kramaric, Perisic
We say: Slovakia 1-2 Croatia
Croatia have performed well below their best during this campaign, and we do not expect much different on Saturday. Nevertheless, their extra big-game experience could prove pivotal, leading us to predict a narrow win for the visitors.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 38.07%. A win for Slovakia had a probability of 35.94% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.39%). The likeliest Slovakia win was 1-0 (9.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Croatia in this match.
