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EFL Cup
Luton Town
EFL Cup | Second Round
Aug 29, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Kenilworth Road Stadium
Gillingham

Luton
3 - 2
Gillingham

Brown (2'), Doughty (28'), Woodrow (66')
Berry (34')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Clarke (55'), Nichols (88')
Dieng (43')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Luton Town and Gillingham, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Luton Town

All competitions
Last Game: Chelsea 3-0 Luton
Friday, August 25 at 8pm in Premier League

Gillingham

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Gillingham 0-3 Colchester
Saturday, August 26 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Luton Town 3-1 Gillingham

 While their start to life in the top flight has been far from ideal, Luton will back themselves to get the better of lower league opposition here. We fully expect the hosts to cruise to a routine win come the end of the 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 59.61%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Gillingham had a probability of 16.17%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.67%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Gillingham win it was 0-1 (6.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.

Result
Luton TownDrawGillingham
59.61% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02) 24.22% (0.0019999999999989 0) 16.17% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 41.65% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.38% (0.016999999999996 0.02)57.62% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.61% (0.011999999999997 0.01)78.39% (-0.012 -0.01)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.81% (-0.00099999999999056 -0)19.19%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.13% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)50.86% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Gillingham Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
51.54% (0.031999999999996 0.03)48.46% (-0.032000000000004 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.43% (0.022000000000002 0.02)83.56% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Luton Town 59.61%
    Gillingham 16.17%
    Draw 24.22%
Luton TownDrawGillingham
1-0 @ 15.35% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 12.67%
2-1 @ 9.18% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 6.97% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
3-1 @ 5.05% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-0 @ 2.88% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-1 @ 2.09% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 1.83% (0.002 0)
5-0 @ 0.95% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 59.61%
1-1 @ 11.12% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 9.3% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-2 @ 3.33% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.48%
Total : 24.22%
0-1 @ 6.74% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-2 @ 4.03% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-2 @ 2.44% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 0.97% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.99%
Total : 16.17%

How you voted: Luton vs Gillingham

Luton Town
78.9%
Draw
7.0%
Gillingham
14.1%
71
Head to Head
Mar 16, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 38
Luton
2-2
Gillingham
Hylton (45'), Stacey (67')
Eaves (53'), O'Neill (79')
Hanlan (92')
Nov 24, 2018 3pm
Gameweek 19
Gillingham
1-3
Luton
Eaves (72')
Eaves (66'), Ehmer (95')
Shinnie (25'), Lee (55', 68')
Rea (35'), Bradley (58')
Oct 6, 2015 7.45pm
Second Round
Gillingham
2-1
Luton
Ehmer (65'), Dack (83')
McGlashan (73')
McGeehan (41')
Guttridge (45'), Green (62')
Mar 3, 2009 3pm
Luton
0-0
Gillingham
Asafu-Adjaye (17')
Miller (48'), King (83'), Nutter (88'), Jackson (89')
Aug 16, 2008 3pm
Gillingham
0-1
Luton

Jackson (54')
Parkin (3')
Davis (10'), Parkin (18'), Gnakpa (26')
rhs 2.0
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