El Salvador will look to kick off their Gold Cup campaign on a winning note on Saturday when they face Curacao in their opening fixture from Toyota Stadium in Dallas.
La Selecta dropped their final tuneup game last weekend 1-0 to Qatar, while Curacao were officially eliminated from CONCACAF World Cup qualifying last month, drawing 0-0 with Panama and losing 2-1 on aggregate.
Match preview
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Unlike most sides appearing in the Gold Cup, El Salvador decided to pay a visit to Croatia in preparation for this tournament, facing the 2022 World Cup hosts Qatar last Saturday.
Manager Hugo Perez will hope that defeat will serve as a wake-up call for his team, who will be facing some much stronger sides in this competition than they have faced throughout much of 2021.
Before their defeat last weekend, this team had rarely been tested, conceding only once in their six matches this year, winning five of those games and scoring 19 goals against the likes of Montserrat, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Antigua and Barbuda and Saint Kitts and Nevis.
With 15 players applying their trade locally in the El Salvador Primera Division, this side should have a lot of familiarity and understanding with one another on the pitch, which could come in handy in a competition like this.
Los Cuzcatlecos have finished third in the group stage of this tournament on five successive occasions, last qualifying for the knockout stage as one of the best third-place teams in 2017.
Third place will not cut it this time around, however, as only the top two teams from each group will advance to the quarter-finals, so El Salvador will be eager to earn three points versus a team who are seven places below them in the FIFA World Rankings.
In their second consecutive appearance at this tournament two years ago, Curacao surprised everyone by finishing second in their group, ahead of El Salvador on goal difference and making it to the quarter-finals of this competition for the first time.
With Patrick Kluivert now at the helm on an interim basis, the hope is that the success of the former great Dutch striker can rub off on his players, who will hope to create another big surprise.
Since Kluivert took over from legendary Dutch manager Guus Hiddink, they have failed to win their last three matches, and in the process, they will not be taking part in the World Cup next year after Panama eliminated them in the previous round.
Despite that disappointment, this small footballing country can take a lot of pride in how far they have come over the past few years, capturing the Caribbean Cup in 2017 and following that up with a victory at the King's Cup two years later.
They also were able to earn results against two strong CONCACAF nations in 2019, defeating Honduras 1-0 and drawing 1-1 with Jamaica, so they are a capable side who have shown that they can cause an upset.
The players will be used to a pressure cooker tournament like this, having competed in the past two competitions.
Most of the current squad play in Europe, including England, the Netherlands, Germany, and Portugal among other leagues, although most of them play primarily in a lower tier.
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Team News
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La Selecta will be counting on striker David Rugamas to maintain his impressive goalscoring form after he notched six goals in the First Round of World Cup qualifying and another two in the Second Round.
His partner up front, Joshua Perez, added a pair of goals in the Second Round of qualification, while their defence has been solid, led by Toronto FC centre-back Eriq Zavaleta alongside Roberto Dominguez and Bryan Tamacas.
The creativity of Seattle Sounders midfielder Alex Roldan could prove extremely valuable, as the 2019 MLS Cup champion is having a good season at club level with a goal and two assists, helping the Sounders to an undefeated campaign so far.
If Curacao are to repeat their performance from 2019 and advance out of the group stage once again, goalkeeper Eloy Room will have to be sharp, and so far, this year, the Columbus Crew keeper has three clean sheets in MLS, and he made two saves to pick up a shutout in his last international appearance last month against Panama.
Veteran midfielder Leandro Bacuna and defender Jurien Gaari will hope to duplicate their performance from the 2019 competition, as they scored the only two goals for their nation in helping them reach the knockout stage.
Striker Rangelo Janga is second all-time in goals for this team with 12, just one behind Juninho Bacuna, brother of Leandro, who has 13.
El Salvador possible starting lineup:
Gonzalez; Tamacas, Dominguez, Zavaleta, Larin; Portillo; Moreno, Ceren, Monterroza; Perez, Rugamas
Curacao possible starting lineup:
Room; Gaari, Martina, Lachman, Statie; Kuwas, Anita, L. Bacuna, Antonia; Janga, J. Bacuna
We say: El Salvador 2-1 Curacao
They may not have faced a lot of strong sides so far this year, but that aside this might be the best El Salvador squad we have seen in quite some time, with a potent attack, who can score goals in bunches, but their defensive game is impressive as well with seven clean sheets in their last 11 fixtures.
Curacao have shown that they can keep a match tight, even against the elite teams in CONCACAF, but they have not played a competitive game in nearly a month, so they may be a little rusty out of the gate.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a El Salvador win with a probability of 47.61%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Guatemala had a probability of 24.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a El Salvador win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.59%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.73%), while for a Guatemala win it was 0-1 (9.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that El Salvador would win this match.