Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 47.43%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 29.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.24%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Willem II win was 1-2 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.