Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 44.73%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 31.01% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.58%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Heracles win was 2-1 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.