Europa League | Qualifying Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 17, 2022 at 8pm UK
Estádio do Dragão
Porto2 - 1Lazio
We said: Porto 2-1 Lazio
Though Lazio are on a largely positive run of form they do not often travel well, so Porto can take a first-leg advantage to Rome next week. Despite recent improvement, the visitors can also be exploited defensively, and the Primeira Liga leaders have sufficient firepower to make them pay for any slip-ups or positional errors. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 59.26%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 20.51% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.02%) and 1-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Lazio win was 1-2 (5.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Porto in this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Lazio |
| 59.26% | 20.23% | 20.51% |
| Both teams to score 62.16% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
