Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Merstham win with a probability of 44.03%. A win for Erith Town had a probability of 32.84% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Merstham win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.94%) and 2-0 (6.05%). The likeliest Erith Town win was 1-2 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Merstham in this match.
