On Saturday, the New York Red Bulls will try to make up some ground in the Eastern Conference playoff race when they head to TQL Stadium for a matchup with FC Cincinnati.
Cincy are looking to snap a four-game losing skid as they have quickly fallen out of the postseason picture, while New York have earned at least a point in four straight contests.
Match preview
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Coming down the home stretch of their third MLS campaign, the Orange-and-Blue are back in a familiar position, sitting in dead-last in the Eastern Conference.
After parting company with Jaap Stam, the team came up short in their first match under interim manager Tyrone Marshall on Wednesday, losing 3-2 to Toronto.
It will take a miracle for this team to make the playoffs at this stage, facing a 19-point deficit, with only eight games remaining, they might have to run the gamut from here on out.
Even if they miss out on the postseason, there are opportunities for them to show that they are growing as a franchise.
Two more victories would eclipse their single-season points record of 24 while also tying their franchise record for most wins at six, both of which were set in their inaugural year.
Cincinnati have not had any trouble starting quickly in matches, but despite so many early goals, they tend to lose their focus as a game wears on, winning only three of their nine matches in which they have scored first.
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Gerhard Struber and his New York Red Bulls sound like a broken record at this point of the season, as they were left disappointed as he put it, following a 1-1 draw in their last encounter.
Despite controlling the tempo throughout their game versus the Philadelphia Union, they continue to struggle in the final third, scoring a goal or fewer in 16 games this year.
There are eight matches remaining for New York, who are trailing Orlando City by eight points for that final playoff position, so needless to say their streak of 11 consecutive postseason appearances is in danger of coming to an end.
This will be their first visit to TQL Stadium, as they hope to continue their solid defensive work against this team, collecting three clean sheets versus Cincy in their six previous meetings.
It is a bit of a surprise to see them having so much trouble transitioning from the back into the attacking zone knowing that this side are built on a lot of pressing while trying to put their opponents under duress.
Defending set-pieces has plagued this team throughout the year as they have struggled to get set up properly in their defensive zone, while being caught flat-footed many times.
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Team News
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Cincinnati attacking midfielder Luciano Acosta has goals in consecutive games for the first time since 2019, making his 150th MLS appearance on Wednesday night.
Edgar Castillo has now surpassed 5,000 minutes played in the league, Caleb Stanko made his 50th career appearance this week, with Brandon Vazquez earning his 75th league cap.
Maikel van der Werff remains out with a sports hernia, and Joe Gyau is suffering the effects of an Achilles injury.
Red Bulls winger Omir Fernandez scored the equaliser versus Philly on Wednesday, finding the back of the net for a second straight game, putting him even with teammate Andres Reyes.
Carlos has made five saves in his last two road fixtures, both of which resulted in clean sheets, his seventh and eighth of the season, the fourth-most in MLS, just one behind Minnesota United keeper Tyler Miller.
Kyle Duncan will be suspended for this game after picking up another yellow card in their last match, Fabio is questionable with a calf issue, Lucas Monzon has a hamstring problem and Aaron Long is out with an Achilles injury.
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Tyton; Matarrita, Vallecilla, Cameron, Bailey; Medunjanin, Cruz, Kubo, Acosta; Harris, Brenner
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Carlos; Reyes, Nealis, Edwards, Duncan; Yearwood, Amaya, Tolkin; Casseres, Klimala, Fernandez
We say: FC Cincinnati 0-2 New York Red Bulls
Cincinnati are likely to miss the playoffs for a third successive campaign, and they have struggled to keep the ball out of their goal, conceding 13 times in their last four games.
The Red Bulls need a win in the worst way, and going up against a team who have given up the second-most goals in MLS (51) should be just what they need to regain some confidence.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 48.37%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 25.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.23%) and 0-2 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.32%), while for a FC Cincinnati win it was 1-0 (8.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for New York Red Bulls in this match.
