After their magical playoff run fell just short in 2024, the New York Red Bulls hope to begin the 2025 Major League Soccer season on the right foot as they head to TQL Stadium to face FC Cincinnati on Saturday.
In the MLS Cup final last year, the Red Bulls suffered a 2-1 defeat to the Los Angeles Galaxy, while Cincy were knocked out in their opening-round series with New York City FC, losing that decisive third match on penalties.
Match preview
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For the first half of the previous regular season Cincinnati were neck-and-neck with Inter Miami for the Supporters' Shield before mysteriously hitting a slump that seemingly lasted until the end of their campaign.
Pat Noonan's men were the best overall team in MLS after trouncing Miami 6-1 in early July, but they only won three regular-season fixtures after that.
This club made a point in the off-season to dump their share of defenders that seemed to plague them in 2024, with Cincinnati conceding three or more goals in six MLS affairs.
The Orange and Blue won seven matches played at TQL Stadium in the 2024 regular season, though they also suffered seven defeats, as many as this club had in the 2022 and 2023 regular seasons combined.
While they wound up third in the Eastern Conference with 59 points, it was 10 fewer than they had at the end of the 2023 regular season.
Cincy went unbeaten in the pre-season this year, defeating CF Montreal (1-0) and the Philadelphia Union (4-1), while drawing the Houston Dynamo (1-1) and Atlanta United (2-2).
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After years of early playoff exits, the Red Bulls were the surprise story of the 2024 MLS post-season, knocking out the reigning champion Columbus Crew, before stunning New York City FC and Orlando City.
It was rather unexpected, as this team had not advanced beyond the opening round of the playoffs since 2018 when they earned a bye into the conference semi-finals and lost to Atlanta United on aggregate in the East final (3-1).
For stretches of the 2024 regular season, Sandro Schwarz employed a high-energy brand of football but with a lot more possession than we are used to seeing from Red Bull clubs.
They reverted to their traditional passive, high-press approach, while hanging back through much of the playoffs, with fewer than 40% possession in the first three rounds, before losing the final to the Galaxy when they had over 60% of the ball.
Under Schwarz the Red Bulls only claimed four victories as the visitors during the previous regular season, winning one of their last nine MLS away fixtures not counting the playoffs.
New York won both of their matches against Cincinnati last year and are unbeaten in their last four regular-season contests played at TQL Stadium, claiming a 2-1 triumph in this exact fixture last year.
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Team News
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It was a busy off-season for Cincinnati, as they added Evander from the Portland Timbers, signed Lukas Engel from Middlesbrough and Gilberto Flores out of Club Libertad, while also bringing in Kevin Denkey from Cercle Brugge.
They traded away former league MVP Luciano Acosta to Dallas and got rid of plenty of defenders, including Ian Murphy and Chidozie Awaziem (traded to the Colorado Rapids), while loaning Alvaro Barreal to Brazilian side Santos.
As for the Red Bulls, they signed free agent Raheem Edwards, along with Tim Parker and Marcelo Morales, brought in Alexander Hack on a free transfer and signed Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting.
On the other hand, John Tolkin transferred to Holstein Kiel, Dante Vanzeir joined KAA Gent, while Elias Manoel and Andres Reyes were traded to Real Salt Lake and San Diego FC, respectively.
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Celentano; Robinson, Miazga, Hadebe; Yedlin, Bucha, Nwobodo, Engel; Evander; Orellano, Denkey
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; Eile, S. Nealis, Hack; Harper, Edelman, Carballo, Edwards; Morgan, Forsberg; Choupo-Moting
We say: FC Cincinnati 1-0 New York Red Bulls
Losing Acosta is a blow to Cincinnati, but we believe Evander's dynamic skill and speed, along with all the familiar faces in their lineup, will enable them to begin this campaign on a winning note.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
