Top and bottom meet in World Cup qualifying Group G on Saturday evening as Turkey travel to Gibraltar in the fifth round of matches.
Turkey have won two and drawn two of their opening four games, while Gibraltar are without a win as we approach the midway point on the road to Qatar 2022.
Match preview
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The Crescent-Stars kicked off their qualifying campaign in superb style as they followed up a 4-2 home win against the Netherlands with a 3-0 victory in Norway.
Since then, however, they have been held 3-3 and 2-2 at home by Latvia and Montenegro respectively, games Senol Gunes would have been confident of taking maximum points from.
Still, Turkey remain one point better off than the Netherlands, Montenegro and Norway in what is an extremely competitive group, with only one team guaranteed a place in Qatar.
Wednesday's draw with Montenegro will have been particularly tough to take as Turkey squandered a two-goal lead, the second of their opponents' goals coming in the 97th minute.
That was the Crescent-Stars' first match since losing all three games at Euro 2020, so momentum is not exactly on their side ahead of this trip to Gibraltar.
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The hosts will consider anything other than defeat this weekend as a major positive, given that they have picked up just two victories in their last 24 matches.
Gibraltar have failed to so much as pick up a point from their previous 31 qualifying fixtures, in fact, a run that includes four straight defeats in the current campaign.
Julio Cesar Ribas's men are ranked down in 194th place in the FIFA rankings and went down 3-1 to Latvia on their return to competitive action on Wednesday.
While the pressure is off Gibraltar heading into this weekend's clash with Turkey, anything less than a victory for the visitors will leave Gunes under pressure.
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Team News
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Turkey are without Leicester City defender Caglar Soyuncu due to coronavirus restrictions in England stopping him from making the journey.
Gunes has plenty of other options in that area, however, and he is likely to stick with the pairing of Merih Demiral and Kaan Ayhan for this latest match.
The visitors will need to freshen things up with a huge match against the Netherlands to come next week, so the likes of Orkun Kokcu, Enes Unal and Alpaslan Ozturk may all come in.
As for the home side, Ribas may also be tempted to rotate, although the Uruguayan coach is not exactly blessed with squad depth.
Tjay De Barr has made a positive start to life with new club Wycombe Wanderers in the English Football League and looks set to retain his place in attack.
In terms of fresh legs, Joseph Chipolina and Anthony Hernandez were introduced from the substitutes' bench against Latvia and will be eager for more minutes here.
Gibraltar possible starting lineup:
Coleing; Sergeant, R. Chipolina, Wiseman, Bosio, Britto; Ronan, Torrilla, Annesley, Valarino; Barr
Turkey possible starting lineup:
Bayindir; Celik, Ayhan, Demiral, Muldur; Ozturk, Under, Kokcu, Calhanoglu, Karaman; Yilmaz
We say: Gibraltar 0-2 Turkey
Turkey are winless in five competitive matches since kicking off their World Cup qualifying campaign with back-to-back victories.
Minnows Gibraltar are the perfect next opponents for the Crescent-Stars, however, and we can see them kickstarting their campaign with a morale-boosting win on Saturday.
Top tip
Daniel Lewis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 57.44%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 17.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12%) and 1-2 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 1-0 (7.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Turkey would win this match.
