Two sides separated by just two points and two places in the Portuguese Primeira Liga standings square off on Sunday when Gil Vicente play host to Portimonense at the Estadio Cidade de Barcelos.
The hosts head into the game fresh off the back of seeing their two-game winning run come to an end, while the visitors are without a win in any of their last four outings across all competitions.
Match preview
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Gil Vicente were denied a third win on the bounce for the first time this season last Saturday when they were held to a 1-1 draw by a resilient Boavista side at the Estadio do Bessa.
Despite being on the front foot for most of the game and seeing over 60% of the ball possession, it was the hosts who were more threatening in attack as they took the lead after just four minutes through Gaius Makouta before Samuel Lino restored parity in the 67th minute.
Prior to that, the Gilistas cruised to an emphatic 3-0 victory at Tondela on December 28 before seeing off Vitoria de Guimaraes 3-2 in their first outing of the New Year two weeks later.
After a rough start to the season where they managed just two wins from their opening nine outings, Ricardo Soares will feel delighted by his sides turnaround as they head into Sunday's game with four wins and one draw from their last six games.
The Gilistas have now won seven, drawn six draws and lost five of their 18 games so far to collect 27 points and occupy fifth place in the Primeira Liga standings, five points behind Braga in the first Conference League qualification spot.
Meanwhile, Portimonense put on a fine show of fighting spirit as they came from one goal behind to salvage a late 1-1 draw against Vitoria de Guimaraes.
After Nelson Luz broke the deadlock in the 34th minute to put the visitors in front heading into the half-time break, substitute Anderson Oliveira came up trumps for the Portimao-based side as he struck with five minutes left on the clock to force a share of the spoils.
Prior to that, Paulo Sergio's men were on a run of three straight defeats across all competitions, including a disappointing 4-2 loss at the hands of Segunda Liga side Mafra on January 13 which saw their Taca de Portugal campaign come to an end.
While Portimonense have been decent in front of goal in recent weeks, their struggle for form has been owing to their defensive frailties as they have conceded 10 goals in their last four games.
The Alvinegros' form on home turf has also been a major cause for concern as they currently boast the league's fourth-worst record with nine points from 10 outings so far.
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Team News
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Gil Vicente will take to the pitch without the services of Brazilian midfielder Joao Afonso, who continues his long road to full fitness after sustaining a severe injury last April.
Fellow countryman Jean is also out of contention for the Gilistas after picking up a muscle injury back in December's game against Famalicao.
With his strike against Boavista last time out, Lino now has six goals and three assists to his name this season and we expect the 22-year-old to shoulder the hosts' goalscoring responsibilities once again.
Portimonense, on the other hand, will have to make do with the absence of Achraf Lazaar after the Moroccan full-back picked up a fibula injury last September.
Twenty-six-year-old William Rocha is also a major doubt for the hosts after he was forced off the pitch through injury shortly after the hour mark against Vitoria de Guimaraes last time out.
Oliveira staked his claim for a starting role after coming off the bench to salvage a point in the aforementioned game and the Brazilian forward could team up with Wilinton Aponza and Aylton Boa Morte in attack.
Following Guinea-Bissau's early exit from the ongoing Africa Cup of Nations, Fali Cande has returned to the squad and the 23-year-old defender should come into the fold on Saturday.
Gil Vicente possible starting lineup:
Frelih; Hackman, Silva, Fernandes, Talocha; Aburjania, Pedrinho, Bueno; Murilo, Navarro, Lino
Portimonense possible starting lineup:
Samuel; Possignolo, Pedrao, Rocha; Moufi, Carlinhos, Relvas, Nakajima; Morte, Oliveira, Aponza
We say: Gil Vicente 2-1 Portimonense
With just two points separating the sides in the top half of the standings, we can expect an exciting contest with plenty of goalmouth action. Gil Vincente head into the game as the more in-form side and we are backing them to come away with all three points.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 41.22%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (9.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Gil Vicente in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Gil Vicente.
