Giresunspor and Goztepe SK will do battle on Sunday in a meeting of huge importance at the bottom end of the Turkish Super Lig table.
The hosts currently sit in the final relegation place, just a point adrift of their opponents in 16th spot.
Match preview
In their first top-flight season in 44 years, Giresunspor had a particularly difficult start, quickly dropping to the bottom end of the division, but they looked to have made eye-catching progress late last year.
Over the course of 10 games spanning October, November and December, Cotanaklar earned six victories and 20 points to climb well away from the threat of the drop, with a run of three straight wins a particular highlight as they defeated Yeni Malatyaspor and Faith Karagumruk alongside a 4-0 thrashing of defending champions Besiktas.
However, having won just once in the league since the turn of the year, Hakan Keles's side have been dragged back into the bottom four, and they head into Sunday's game in a run of four straight defeats, losing out to Alanyaspor, Konyaspor and Fenerbahce before being beaten 2-1 away at Kayserispor most recently.
Although they currently find themselves in the drop zone, with Sunday's opponents just a point ahead, Cotanaklar will know a victory at the weekend will see them jump out of the bottom four heading into the final run of the season.
Meanwhile, Goztepe will also look to end a bleak run of form to stretch their lead over the hosts.
Similarly to their hosts, Sunday's visitors enjoyed a brief resurgence after a poor start to the campaign, as they picked up four straight Super Lig wins in January.
Nestor El Maestro's side thrashed Antalyaspor 4-0 and followed that up with 2-1 victories over Yeni Malatyaspor and Sivasspor before beating high-flying Istanbul Basaksehir by the same scoreline in impressive fashion, but they now come into Sunday's game on the back of three straight top-flight defeats.
Following losses to Altay and Hatayspor, Goztepe looked set to pick up a 2-1 win over an underachieving Galatasaray side last time, but Bafetimbi Gomis netted goals in the 87th and 99th minutes to cruelly deny them a result.
Consequently, El Maestro's men now sit just a point above the drop zone, and they will be desperate to pick up a win at the weekend to extend their cushion and stretch a lead over the hosts to four points.
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Team News
Giresunspor are expected to come in with a clean bill of health, although they will be without midfielder Shapi Suleymanov, who is suspended for the meeting.
However, centre-back Alexis Perez has completed his own suspension and should come straight back into the defensive line.
Winger Fousseni Diabate is a key man going forward, having scored six league goals this term, while attacking midfielder Chiquinho has already registered a goal and an assist in just two Super Lig matches since his loan move from Benfica.
The visitors are without Marko Mihojevic and Dzenan Burekovic due to injuries, while Adis Jahovic will serve a suspension.
Franco Di Santo should continue to lead the line following his January switch from Argentinian side San Lorenzo, while his strike partner Cherif Ndiaye has netted nine league goals so far this season.
Giresunspor possible starting lineup:
Kocuk; Yavru, Diarra, Perez, Behich; Traore, Flavio; Diabate, Chiquinho, Serginho; Doukara
Goztepe SK possible starting lineup:
Egribayat; Angel, Nukan, Arslangic; Alici, Akbunar, Nwobodo, Aydogdu, Emir; Di Santo, Ndiaye
We say: Giresunspor 1-2 Goztepe SK
Given the sides' very similar standings and seasons on the whole, this could certainly go either way, but we just give the edge to the visitors.
Goztepe will feel that they are superior to the newly-promoted side on their day, and, after a cruel narrow defeat to Galatasaray, they will be desperate to bounce back and move clear of the drop zone.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Giresunspor win with a probability of 46.59%. A win for Goztepe SK had a probability of 27.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Giresunspor win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest Goztepe SK win was 0-1 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Giresunspor would win this match.
