Gremio welcome LDU Quito to Brazil in the second leg of their Copa Sudamericana round-of-16 tie on Tuesday, with the hosts coming in with a one-goal lead.
While they find themselves in the driver's seat, Gremio are yet to get going domestically this season, having only recorded their first league win of the season on Sunday, and they will be desperate to advance into the final eight of South America's second continental tournament.
Match preview
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Gremio advanced to the final 16 of the Copa Sudamericana by topping their group in impressive fashion, only dropping two points in a goalless draw with La Equidad in the final round of fixtures when the first-placed finish was already sealed.
The highlight of the group stage came on home turf, as braces from Luiz Fernando and Ferreira alongside goals from Diego Souza, Maicon Souza, Diego Churin and an Arquimedes Jose Hernandez own goal saw them pick up an 8-0 victory over Venezuelan outfit Aragua.
They then went into a tough round-of-16 tie with LDU Quito and took a 1-0 aggregate lead from the away leg thanks to Leo Pereira's early strike.
Luiz Felipe Scolari's men then recorded their second straight win in all competitions last time out, defeating Fluminense 1-0 in league action thanks to a 90th-minute Cesar Pinares penalty to put their first Brasileiro victory of the season on the board at the 10th time of asking.
Having finally lifted themselves off the foot of the Brazilian top flight, coupled with a strong first-leg performance, the mood in the Gremio camp will undoubtedly be high, and they will be confident of getting over the line on Tuesday.
They will certainly be challenged, though, with LDU Quito aiming to overturn a one-goal deficit and book their place in the final eight.
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The Ecuadorian side dropped into the Copa Sudamericana round of 16 after finishing third in their Copa Libertadores group, having missed out on qualification by just two points after a poor start to their campaign.
They are at least fortunate to have kept hold of some form of continental football, though, and Los Albos will be keen to ensure they do not waste the opportunity by falling at the first hurdle.
Other than the first-leg defeat to Gremio on home turf, the Quito outfit find themselves in a strong run of form, having won five of their last six games in all competitions, including their last two matches in the first round of the Ecuadorian top flight.
The highlight of the recent form was undoubtedly a 1-0 win over fellow Ecuadorian giants Barcelona SC, seeing them lift the Supercopa de Ecuador trophy thanks to an early own goal from Bryan Caicedo.
While they do not come into the second leg in a strong position, LDU Quito will know that they possess the ability to overturn the deficit and advance to the quarter-finals, should they show up in the form they displayed prior to the first leg.
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Team News
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After an impressive first-leg result from his side, Luiz Felipe Scolari is unlikely to make any major changes to the Gremio XI on Tuesday.
Their line should be led by experienced forward Diego Souza, who has registered two goals and two assists in five Copa Sudamericana appearances so far this season.
However, they could be without dangerous winger Ferreira, who has missed the last two games, including the first leg victory over LDU Quito.
Despite losing 1-0 in the opening leg, LDU Quito looked the far more dangerous of the two sides over the course of the first leg, so there is no real reason for them to tamper too much with the starting side.
Their attacking hopes will remain on the shoulders of Luis Amarilla, who has hit 10 goals in 18 appearances in all competitions this season.
He should be supported by the dangerous trio of Matias Zunino, Jhojan Julio and Billy Arce, looking to cause major problems for the Gremio back line.
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Chapeco; Vanderson, Tressoldi, Kannemann, Cortez; L Pereira, Silva, F Pereira, Alisson; Souza, Pyerre
LDU Quito possible starting lineup:
Gabbarini; Quinteros, Guerra, Caicedo, Ayala; Piovi, Alcivar; Zunino Julio, Arce; Amarilla
We say: Gremio 1-1 LDU Quito
While LDU Quito looked the better of the two sides in the first leg, Luiz Felipe Scolari appears to have brought new life to this Gremio side, and we see them battling for an aggregate victory on Tuesday.
They should look to defend their lead rather than attack Quito, but given the nature of the two-legged affair, they will likely have chances to punish their opponents on the break.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 48.33%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for LDU Quito had a probability of 24.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.64%), while for a LDU Quito win it was 0-1 (9.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
