Seeking a third derby win of the season, Union Berlin visit Hertha Berlin's iconic Olympiastadion on Saturday evening.
The capital city clash pits together two sides experiencing differing fortunes, with the hosts battling to avoid the drop and their visitors in the mix for European qualification.
Match preview
© Reuters
Berlin derbies have only infrequently occurred since the Bundesliga's inaugural season in 1963, and just nine matches have been played between capital clubs in the German top flight before this weekend.
The most recent was November's 2-0 away defeat for Hertha at An der Alten Forsterei, when their hosts led by two goals on the half-hour mark and saw out the game to earn all three points.
In the intervening months, the clubs clashed again in the DFB-Pokal quarter-finals, with Union once again coming out on top in a 3-2 win at the Olympiastadion.
Hertha have lost seven of their nine outings since - including to rock-bottom Greuther Furth and 6-1 at home to RB Leipzig - with the board appointing former Bayern Munich boss Felix Magath as head coach until the end of the season, after parting company with Tayfun Korkut.
The latter - who was only brought in to replace Pal Dardai at the end of November - left the club inside the Bundesliga relegation zone, so Magath has been presented with one of the more challenging tasks of a long managerial career.
Having been away from the German game for nearly a decade, his reign started in spectacular style, with a 3-0 home win against Hoffenheim just before the international break. However, a 2-1 loss away at Bayer Leverkusen last Saturday leaves his new side still struggling to stay afloat, as they prepare for one of their biggest games of the season.
© Reuters
Ahead of a fixture that captures the attention of a once-divided city, Union's third Bundesliga campaign nears its climax with the club from the town of Kopenick sitting seventh in the standings - 15 points better off than Hertha.
Their more established rivals had finished ahead of the newcomers only on goal difference in the clubs' first year sharing top-flight status, but Die Eisernen then made history in the following campaign.
At the end of last term, the same 15-point advantage as they hold now saw Union finish seventh and qualify for Europe for only the second time, as Hertha only just avoided the drop.
Though Union may have won their first-ever Bundesliga derby in November 2019, they had to wait until last autumn to overcome their capital counterparts once again. Following their cup win back in January, though, the traditional underdogs are now within 90 minutes of a treble over their old foes.
Urs Fischer's side enjoyed their 11th victory of the season last Friday, as they edged out Koln 1-0 on home soil; keeping them within three points of the European places. Also into the semis of the DFB-Pokal, Union certainly have it all to play for in the closing weeks of the campaign.
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
- D
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- D
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Felix Magath is poised to make some changes in the Hertha defence following last week's loss to Leverkusen, particularly as Peter Pekarik is a doubt for Saturday's showdown due to an ankle injury.
Should the full-back fail to recover, either unheralded teenager Julian Eitschberger or Lukas Klunter will provide an alternative on the right flank, while Niklas Stark and Marvin Plattenhardt are both in danger of missing out too.
Not only that, but goalkeepers Alexander Schwolow and Rune Jarstein will definitely be sidelined, so Marcel Lotka - who stepped in off the bench after Schwolow suffered a thigh injury last time out - should start.
Meanwhile, Union have fewer such concerns, though centre-back Paul Jaeckel must serve a suspension for accumulated bookings.
Anthony Ujah is also set to be unavailable, due to illness, so Sheraldo Becker and 14-goal top scorer Taiwo Awoniyi will join forces up front.
Hertha Berlin possible starting lineup:
Lotka; Klunter, Boyata, Kempf, Mittelstadt; Ascacibar; Richter, Tousart, Darida, Serdar; Belfodil
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Ronnow; Baumgartl, Knoche, Heintz; Khedira; Trimmel, Promel, Haraguchi, Giesselmann; Becker, Awoniyi
We say: Hertha Berlin 1-2 Union Berlin
Following recent encounters, Union now hold the edge in this local affair - particularly given Hertha's ongoing woes at the back, which are set to be exacerbated by absences this weekend.
For that reason, the visitors can come out on top for a third straight Berlin derby; pushing their rivals one step closer to demotion.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 42.64%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 32.4% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.97%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 1-0 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
