Independiente del Valle will hope to get a little retribution on Tuesday when they host Palmeiras, who destroyed them on matchday two of their Copa Libertadores campaign 5-0.
The Ecuadorians got right back in the race for a spot in the knockout stage of this tournament by shutting out Universitario 4-0, while the defending champions remain perfect, winning all three of their games thus far.
Match preview
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On matchday two, Independiente del Valle got a first-hand lesson on how far they still have to go to compete with the elite teams in South America.
Despite having 63% of the possession, the Ecuadorians could not contain the high-powered Brazilian attack, who scored early and often.
In their last match of this tournament, Renato Paiva and his team showed they are fast learners as they looked like a completely different side, holding the Peruvians to zero shots through 90 minutes.
Los Negriazules have been a much stronger side when playing at Estadio Banco Guayaquil, where they are yet to lose in 2021.
After a dramatic last-minute win in their opening match, the defending Copa Libertadores champions have come to life, winning their last two games in the group stage by a combined score of 7-1.
Abel Ferreira knows that victory on Tuesday would guarantee passage into the knockout phase for a fifth consecutive season.
The heroes from their 2020 triumph have not disappointed, as Danilo has a goal in his first two games, while Rony is tied for second in goals so far in this competition with four.
Palmeiras have shown they can not only win big, but they can also win tight matches, winning two of their last three games in Brazil by a single goal.
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Team News
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Centre-back Jose Maria Carrasco has a knee injury and is unlikely to return any time soon, having missed the last two months of the season.
Since giving up five goals on matchday two of this competition, goalkeeper Wellington Ramirez has responded well, making five saves in his last three matches in all competitions and keeping a clean sheet on matchday three.
Winger Breno Lopes is the only injury concern for the Brazilians, as he is going into this match with a stretched ligament.
Raphael Veiga will search for his second goal in this competition, while Wesley is just one assist behind Luiz Adriano for the team lead in this tournament.
Independiente del Valle possible starting lineup:
Ramirez; Estacio, Tenorio, Segovia; Sanchez, Uca, Pellerano, Faravelli, Montenegro; Murillo, Escobar
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Luan, Gomez, Renan; Rocha, Veiga, Danilo, Wesley, Luis; Rony, Adriano
We say: Independiente del Valle 1-3 Palmeiras
The Brazilians know what it takes to go far in this competition, and they have the tools to win it all once again.
Independiente del Valle should keep the score respectable, given they are playing at home, where they thrive, but they will have a hard time matching the speed and aggression that Palmeiras possess.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 40.45%. A win for Palmeiras had a probability of 32.69% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Palmeiras win was 0-1 (9.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.
